The Green Bay Packers need a spark in the passing game, and that spark could come from coach Matt LaFleur maximizing what he already has on the roster at receiver.
Less of Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and more of Allen Lazard and Jake Kumerow could make a big difference for the Packers as they jockey for playoff positioning over the final two weeks.
In terms of efficiency, the numbers are undeniable. While Allison and Valdes-Scantling have been two of the most inefficient receivers in the NFL in 2019, Lazard and Kumerow have been among the most efficient, even if the sample size is smaller.
According to Football Outsiders, Allison ranks 72nd among 73 qualifying receivers (at least 50 targets) in DVOA, which measures a player’s value over the average player, adjusted to opponent. Only Nelson Agholor of the Philadelphia Eagles has been worse in 2019.
Valdes-Scantling hasn’t been much better. He ranks 64th in DVOA, in part due to a catch rate that is still hovering below 50 percent.
Other numbers for the pair aren’t pretty, either.
Allison is averaging 5.5 yards per target and 8.7 yards per catch, with a drop rate over 13 percent, and he’s one of the worst receivers in the NFL at creating yards after the catch over the expectation, a metric from Next Gen Stats.
Meanwhile, Valdes-Scantling has hit a massive sophomore slump, with just two catches for 11 yards over the last six games. He’s still averaging 18.6 yards per catch, but he’s caught just two of his last 11 targets, and Aaron Rodgers has a passer rating of just 74.1 when targeting him this season.
Statistically speaking, Lazard and Kumerow look like Jerry Rice and Randy Moss in comparison.
Lazard doesn’t have enough targets to qualify for the DVOA rankings, but if he did, his current efficiency would rank in the top five in the NFL among receivers. In terms of Football Outsiders’ numbers, Lazard has been a comparable receiver to Adam Thielen this season.
The traditional numbers look good for Lazard. He ranks in the top 10 of NFL receivers in yards per target (30 or more targets), and Rodgers is completing almost 74 percent of his passes and averaging 10.5 yards per target when targeting Lazard this season. His passer rating? 126.6.
What about Kumerow, who is about to get more opportunities?
His DVOA is actually higher than Lazard’s, and he’s leading all Packers receivers in yards per target (11.8) and yards per catch (19.3). When targeting Kumerow this season, Rodgers is averaging 12.5 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 127.6. He’s only received 18 total targets in 14 games.
LaFleur may have to get creative. The Packers need Valdes-Scantling’s deep speed in the vertical passing game, and Allison is clearly the player both LaFleur and Rodgers trust most in the slot.
However, Lazard and Kumerow have proven capable of getting open down the field, and the Packers experimented more with Davante Adams in the slot against the Chicago Bears last Sunday, so there’s an opportunity for the Packers to get all three on the field in their more traditional three-receiver sets.
The passing offense needs more efficiency. Allison has dropped too many passes and done too little with the passes he’s actually caught, while it’s unclear if Valdes-Scantling can be trusted with any assignment as he battles his own slump.
Luckily for the Packers, they have two efficient receivers waiting in the bullpen. It’s time for LaFleur to give more of the opportunities afforded to Allison and Valdes-Scantling to Lazard and Kumerow, who have earned the right to be the top options behind Adams.
| Receiver | DVOA | Yards/Target | Catch rate | Passer rating |
| A. Lazard | 24.3% | 10.4 | 74% | 126.6 |
| J. Kumerow | 30.4% | 11.8 | 61% | 127.6 |
| G. Allison | -29.7% | 5.5 | 62% | 91.3 |
| M. Valdes-Scantling | -14.4% | 8.9 | 47% | 74.1 |
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