The Dallas Cowboys lost a game that they needed to win. The 17-9 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles drops them below .500 and probably eliminates them from the playoffs.
Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore broke with his own tradition of establishing a run/pass balance in the first half, but ultimately he called a fourth quarter like we have seen in most of their losses: throwing the ball on almost every play from the shotgun.
The Eagles largest lead was 17-6. Despite the success Dallas has had running the ball from the shotgun (15 times in the first half against the Rams), Moore called just one rush from the shotgun the entire game.
This game showed other puzzling decisions from Kellen Moore. He used play-action relatively infrequently even though it was effective. He also neglected to call any designed runs for the quarterback.
Here’s how.
The Context
This weekly examination of the Cowboys pay calling began as a simple question: would Moore, the guy touted as having a genius football mind, be less predictable than the previous coordinator, Scott Linehan?
Linehan was predictable in the most pedestrian of ways: he called running plays more than 80% of the snaps the quarterback took from under center, and he called passing plays on more than 80% of the shotgun snaps.
This is an ongoing attempt to assess whether Moore is any less predictable than Linehan based on the formation and play calling mentioned above.
You can read the stats from all the previous games here.
The Raw Data from Week 16 versus the Philadelphia Eagles
Where these stats differ from the official game logs, it is because we have intentionally included plays nullified by penalties and/or we included scrambles by the quarterback as passing attempts.
Dallas ran 62 offensive plays against Philadelphia. Quarterback Dak Prescott was under center for 17 of those plays (27.4%) and in the shotgun for 45 plays (72.5%).
Moore called 15 running plays, 42 pass attempts, and five pass attempts off play-action.
First half snaps under center
The Dallas offense ran a mere 24 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for just five of those plays.
Of the five snaps from under center in the first half:
- four were runs;
- one was a play-action pass attempt.
First half snaps from shotgun
Prescott was in the shotgun for 19 snaps in the first half. Moore called:
- one run;
- 17 passes;
- one play-action pass attempt.
In the first half, Moore called five runs and 19 passes.
This type of pass-heavy play calling in the first half is not typical of Moore this year. He, far more often, has called a fairly balanced game in terms of both run/pass ratio and formation (under center versus shotgun) in the first halves of games.
Last week against the Rams, Moore called 25 runs and 17 passes in the first half.
Moore frequently uses play-action on more than 25% of the first-half passing attempts. Last week against Los Angeles, six of Prescott’s 17 first-half pass were off play-action (35%). This week, Prescott threw just two passes using play-action out of 19 attempts (10.5%).
Second half snaps from under center
Dallas ran 38 plays in the second half.
Prescott was under center for 12 plays. On those 12 snaps, Moore called:
- 10 rushes;
- two play-action passes.
Second half snaps from the shotgun
Prescott was in the shotgun for 26 plays in the second half. On those 26 plays, Moore called:
- one rush;
- 25 pass attempts;
- one play-action pass.
Moore tried to get the running game going in the second half. Running back Ezekiel Elliott did have third-quarter runs of 10, eight, and nine yards (3 runs for 37 yards). Although, those successful runs were somewhat offset by six rushes for two yards or less (2, 1, 1, -2, 2, -1 or 6 carries for three yards).
The Cowboys certainly had their chances to get back in the game. When running back Tony Pollard fumbled at the Philadelphia 25 yard line, Dallas was only losing 10-6.
Even after the fumble, the Cowboys defense got the ball back to the offense with the score still at 10-6. The Cowboys picked up a few first downs (after a nine-yard run by Elliott on first down and a 14-yard reception by tight end Blake Jarwin). But on 3rd and 12, Prescott missed a “wide open” (Troy Aikman’s words) Amari Cooper to end the drive.
After the poor throw by Prescott, the Eagles scored on their next possession to make it 17-6, and then, as we have seen in recent games played against everyone but the Rams, Moore resorted to throwing from the shotgun on nearly every play (19 straight times).
Totals for the game
Moore called 62 plays in Week 16. Prescott was under center for 17 plays and in the shotgun for 45.
Moore called 15 running plays:
- 14 when Prescott started under center;
- once from the shotgun;
- zero off play-action.
Moore called 47 pass attempts:
- zero when the quarterback dropped back from center;
- three off pay-action when Prescott starts under center;
- 42 from the shotgun;
- two off play-action in the shotgun.
The Dallas offense was not balanced in terms of the under center/shotgun distribution (17 under center compared to 45 in shotgun), and they were equally unbalanced in terms of run/pass ratio (15 runs and 47 pass attempts).
Whenever the run/pass ratio is so dominated by passing attempts, the Dallas Cowboys lose. Every game in which Moore resorted to passing on every play from the shotgun, Dallas has lost.
Conclusions
It is notable that Moore called so few rushing attempts in the first half (5).
The thing that stands out most though is that Moore didn’t use the tactics that have been successful in the past: running from the shotgun, play-action from both formations, and designed runs for the quarterback.
In terms of the predictability, Moore has been able to distance himself from the 80% threshold associated with Linehan in one of the two formations (under center or shotgun), but rarely has he done it from both formations in the same game.
Moore called runs on more than 82% of the snaps from under center (14 runs on 17 snaps). He called passes on 97.7% of the shotgun plays (44 passes out of 45 snaps).
Miscellaneous Observations
Why does it seem like every NFL offense can effectively execute screens against the Cowboys defense, but the Dallas offense can’t run a screen against anyone? Remember when Elliott scoring on long screens, like the 60+ yarder against the Steelers, used to seem like it was common?
After Dak Prescott missed a throw, Joe Buck observed that, Prescott has been “off” that game; Troy Aikman remarked that he’d been off for a “few weeks, to be honest.”
It is hard to argue with that assessment. For a thorough review of Prescott’s performance against the Eagles, do yourself a favour and read Lynn Pierce’s post comparing Prescott and Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz.
Many Cowboy fans are still convinced that the Cowboys are a very talented team; hence, the players are not to blame.
Coaches didn’t make bad throws, or drop passes, or fumble the football, or fail to maintain their gaps, or miss tackles.
Some are starting to question whether the Dallas Cowboys are as talented as their public perception, Pro Bowl resumes, and high salaries suggest.
The Cowboys stay home this week to face the Washington Redskins in the season finale. It will be interesting to see whether they are able to come out and play with any intensity.
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