The Montreal Canadiens and the Pittsburgh Penguins tangle in Game 4 of their best-of-five Eastern Conference qualification round series Friday at 4 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. We analyze the Canadiens-Penguins NHL betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Canadiens lead 2-1.
Canadiens vs. Penguins: Projected starting goalies
Carey Price vs. Matt Murray/Tristan Jarry
Price is a huge reason why the 12th-seeded Canadiens have pushed the fifth-seeded Pens to the brink of elimination. Price is 2-1-0 with a 2.19 goals against average and .937 save percentage through three games. The only loss came in Game 2, and that’s because Pittsburgh’s offense provided just one goal of support.
As far as that offensive support is concerned, F Brendan Gallagher is dealing with a lower-body injury and is clearly not 100 percent, although he tries to soldier on.
Penguins coach Mike Sullivan has yet to make an official decision, but we’re projecting the All-Star Jarry to get the starting nod in Game 4. Murray is 1-2-0 with a 2.50 GAA and .914 SV% in the series. Those aren’t terrible numbers. The Pens trail 2-1 for a multitude of reasons, and both of their losses are just by one goal each. More offensive production is needed as they have averaged just 2.7 goals per game in the series.
Murray might actually start, but he’ll be on a short leash. Montreal’s game-winning goal in Game 3 by Jeff Petry from a terrible angle hit Murray in the helmet and deflected in. That ricochet shot has the fans in the Steel City up in arms, and yinz might very well get your wish with Jarry.
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Canadiens vs. Penguins: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:31 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Penguins 3, Canadiens 2
Moneyline (ML)
The PENGUINS (-167) have been crushing moneyline bettors playing the favorite so far in this series. They just haven’t been hitting on all offensive cylinders, and you have to figure a breakout is coming. There’s just too much talent in black and gold. Price has neutralized Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin and company for the most part. Look for the offense to be a little frustrated again in this one, but the Pens will do enough to stay alive and force a decisive Game 5.
New to sports betting? A $10 moneyline bet on the Penguins (-167) returns a profit of $5.99 if they win.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
The Penguins (-1.5, +165) cannot be trusted on the puck line, and betting Pens (-1, +100) doesn’t make much sense, as I am expecting a one-goal game. There is no reason to play a win on the moneyline into a push by betting a -1. In fact, if Pittsburgh wins this one, looking ahead, there would be no reason to bet the puck line in Game 5, either. That would be an equally tight contest. AVOID.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 5.5 (-129) has cashed in two of the first three games in this series, with Game 3’s total of seven goals the only result to cash Over. While the Pens have a ton of experience, especially in the postseason, nerves will definitely be there in this one. It would be an embarrassing loss to get bounced by the 12-seed. Look for the Pens to be careful, and look for the Habs to also be very tight, as they try to not make any mistakes to allow odd-man rushes down the ice to help the Pens to stay alive.
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