The No. 1 Philadelphia Union host No. 3 New York City FC at Subaru Park Sunday. Kickoff of the Eastern Conference final is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we preview Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC odds, and make our best MLS bets, picks and predictions.
The Union are coming into this game following a 1-0 win over FC Cincinnati at home, a game they were outplayed in, but saved by heroics from GK Andre Blake.
Philadelphia’s strength is in its defense, having allowed just 26 goals this season. During the regular season, it beat NYCFC in both battles, a 2-1 win at home and 2-0 win on the road.
As for NYCFC, it has had a more complicated season as it no longer has star F Valentín Castellanos, who still has the most goals on the team this season with 13. That said, it has made its way through though with wins over Inter Miami and CF Montreal, scoring 3 goals in each and allowing just 1 goal to the high-octane Montreal attack.
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Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Philadelphia Union -114 (bet $114 to win $100) | New York City FC +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Draw +270
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -120 | U: -101)
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Prediction
Philadelphia Union 1, New York City FC 0
Moneyline (ML)
LEAN PHILADELPHIA UNION (-114).
The Union are a well-balanced team and have proven that time and time again. They rank No. 1 in the MLS in save percentage, clean sheets and interceptions.
Offensively, it ranked No. 1 in shooting percentage and 3rd in shots on target. Those numbers, and having posted a 12-0-5 home record, combine to make betting Philadelphia the wise play.
Also, NYCFC beat Montreal 3-1, but it had fewer expected goals, losing that battle 2.9 to 1.8. Play that game again, and the outcome may have been different.
Montreal was weak defensively all season, as was Inter Miami. NYCFC is going to meet a team that is elite on both sides of the pitch, and considering that, I’d back the Union to win in regulation.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (-101).
While NYCFC dominated its 2 games so far, Philadelphia is a different beast and has strong, capable defenders.
They have pitched 4 clean sheets in its last 6 games and have allowed just 1.2 expected goals in its last 2 matches. FC Cincinnati was 1 of the most dynamic attacks in the East, having scored the 2nd-most goals in the conference. The Union, behind Blake, didn’t allow a single goal.
NYCFC has a good defense as well, allowing just 41 goals in 34 matches. With the Union having scored 8 goals in 6 matches against the other 3 top-4 defenses in the East, I would expect a low-scoring battle.
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