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The UMass Minutemen (1-5) welcome the Missouri Tigers (4-1) to Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Missouri vs. UMass odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Missouri is No. 18 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. The Tigers had their 4-game winning streak, which included wins over the Boston College Eagles and Vanderbilt Commordores, snapped last week 41-10 by the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies. Missouri has failed to cover in 3 straight games and is 2-3 against the spread (ATS). It has allowed 21 or more points in 3 straight games after giving up 0 in the 1st 2 weeks.
UMass has struggled this season. The independent Minutemen have 5 losses to Mid-American Conference teams with its lone win over Central Connecticut State. UMass is 1-1 straight up in games as a favorite and 0-4 in games as an underdog. The Minutemen have scored 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. UMass’ weakness has been mainly on the defensive side, allowing 31-plus points in 4 of its last 5 games.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Missouri at UMass odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 12:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Missouri -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100) | UMass +1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600)
- Against the spread (ATS): Missouri -27.5 (-110) | UMass +27.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Missouri at UMass picks and predictions
Prediction
Missouri 42, UMass 10
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no reason to take anything on the moneyline. The Tigers are far too expensive of a favorite to play, and the Minuteman have struggled too much against quality opponents to consider them as a plus-money underdog.
Against the spread
BET MISSOURI -27.5 (-110).
The Tigers have beaten up bad opponents. They took down Murray State 51-0 to open the season and then beat Buffalo 38-0 in the second week. Those are their lone covers of the season, and it is the lone times in which Missouri has been a favorite of 20 or more points.
UMass is 2-1-1 ATS as an underdog, but it is 0-2 ATS at home this season. The Minutemen have allowed 34 or more points in 3 of 6 games this season, and this will be the best offense they have played. Expect Missouri to tear through the UMass defense.
Take MISSOURI -27.5 (-110).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 54.5 (-110).
In both games which Missouri was this size of a favorite, it shut out its opponent. UMass has a better offense than those teams but not by much. It scored just 3 on the Buffalo Bulls and has scored 20 or fewer points in 4 of 6 games. This should be the best defense UMass has faced this season.
Missouri is 2-3 O/U this season, and it is 0-2 O/U in games against non-Power 5 opponents. The Tigers have scored over 38 points just once this season as well, so they may not drop 40-plus, especially after a disappointing 10-point effort in Week 6. Considering those trends, take UNDER 54.5 (-110).
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