The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1 overall, 1-1 SEC) visit the Kentucky Wildcats (0-2, 0-2) Saturday at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky., for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Below, we analyze the Mississippi State-Kentucky college football betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Mississippi State at Kentucky: Betting odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mississippi State +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Kentucky -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mississippi State +2.5 (-110) | Kentucky -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 57.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mississippi State at Kentucky: Three things to know
- Following a stunning upset of then-No. 6 LSU on the road in its season opener, Mississippi State flopped as a 16.5-point favorite in a 21-14 home loss to Arkansas last Saturday. Even more embarrassing was that the Razorbacks snapped a 20-game SEC losing streak. Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill exited and didn’t return after sustaining an undisclosed injury during the first offensive series vs. Arkansas, but he is expected to play Saturday.
- Kentucky suffered a heartbreaker last week, blowing a 14-point, third-quarter lead and losing in overtime to Ole Miss 42-41. If allowing the Rebels to rally from the two-touchdown deficit wasn’t bitter enough, the Wildcats did score first in OT but missed the extra point. Kentucky’s bright spot was its run game. Chris Rodriguez rushed for 133 yards and two TDs, Terry Wilson ran for 129 yards and 3 scores and Asim Rose added 117 rushing yards with 1 TD. The ‘Cats finished with 408 yards on the ground, but their defense will need to improve if they hope to get in the win column in 2020.
- The home team has claimed the last five head-to-head meetings. Neither claimed back-to-back victories since 2014-15 when MSU wrapped up a seven-game win streak in the series.
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Mississippi State at Kentucky: Odds, betting lines and picks
Prediction
Mississippi State 42, Kentucky 27
Money line (ML)
PASS. While I’m picking Mississippi State (+110) to win outright, and even though the ML price is reasonable, I’m willing to risk the vig and take the points (see below).
Against the spread (ATS)
MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – which should be 1½ your usual wager. No Mike Leach-coached team will settle for mediocrity. It couldn’t have been an easy week of practice for MSU after last week’s cringeworthy meltdown to Arkansas. Leach will make sure his Bulldogs are ready.
Over/Under (O/U)
Back the OVER 57.5 (-110). Kentucky’s defense allowed 64 regulation points in its last two games. Mississippi State put up 44 on LSU. The key to stopping MSU’s “Air Raid” attack is playing zone coverage like Arkansas did, not man-to-man coverage like LSU.
The problem is that Kentucky lacks talent in its secondary. Mississippi State QB K.J. Costello should have a field day.
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| Johnny’s 2020 CFB record | 1-1 |
| 2019 CFB record | 11-6-1 |
| 2020 overall record (all sports) | 110-77-2 |
| Strongest plays (all sports) | 56-30-1 |
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