The Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) host the Minnesota Vikings (3-5) Sunday for their Week 10 clash at SoFi Stadium at 4:05 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Vikings vs. Chargers odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Minnesota has lost back-to-back games. It lost to a Dak Prescott-less Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in Week 8. Last week, the Vikings blew a double-digit lead in a 34-31 overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
Minnesota is 4-4 ATS and 4-4 O/U with the ninth-toughest schedule, according to Football Outsiders.
L.A. snapped a two-game losing skid by winning and covering against the Philadelphia Eagles as a 1-point road favorite in Week 9. Chargers QB Justin Herbert is in MVP talks. Herbert is fifth in both QBR and Pro Football Focus’s quarterback rankings (out of 35 graded quarterbacks).
The Chargers are 5-3 ATS and 3-5 O/U with the seventh-toughest schedule (Football Outsiders).
Vikings at Chargers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 4:21 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Vikings +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Chargers -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Vikings +3.5 (-125) | Chargers -3.5 (+102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 53.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Vikings at Chargers key injuries
Vikings
- C Garrett Bradbury (health and safety protocols) questionable
- DT Michael Pierce (elbow) out
- LB Anthony Barr (knee) out
- CB Bashaud Breeland (groin) questionable
- FS Harrison Smith (illness) doubtful
Chargers
- WR Keenan Allen (knee) questionable
- DE Joey Bosa (ankle) questionable
- LB Drue Tranquill (health and safety protocols) questionable
- S Nasir Adderley (ankle) questionable
- CB Michael Davis (hamstring) doubtful
Vikings at Chargers odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Vikings 31, Chargers 28
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Vikings (+133) because I like Minnesota plus the points in this spot but am holding out for a better price on the money line. If the Vikings’ price goes to +145 or higher then I’d “sprinkle” on Minnesota’s money line.
Against the spread
The old football adage “a good run game is a quarterback’s best friend” applies even more so for Vikings QB Kirk Cousins.
Minnesota is 10-7 overall, 13-4 ATS and 7-2 ATS as an underdog when gaining 150 rushing yards or more since signing Cousins in 2018.
There’s really no reason why the Vikings won’t run all over L.A.’s defense. The Chargers have by far the worst rush defense DVOA (according to Football Outsiders), along with the worst defensive rushing EPA per play and worst rush defense success rate.
We know Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer loves to feed RB Dalvin Cook the rock and against this porous L.A. rush defense, we have to expect a lot of Cook carries.
The Vikings getting their ground game going should keep a banged-up Bosa from pinning his ears back and ruining Cousins’ afternoon. Also, it should open up some downfield shots from Cousins to WRs Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.
BET 1 unit on the VIKINGS +3.5 (-125).
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 53.5 (-105) for a small wager only because most of the sports gambling shows that I listen to are betting the Over in Vikings-Chargers, so is a vast majority of the market.
It’s Over or nothing for me here because both rush defenses are awful, both quarterbacks grade out highly across several advanced football metrics and both offenses play at a fast tempo.
According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings rank sixth in second per play and the Chargers are third.
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