The Seattle Mariners (32-35) host the Minnesota Twins (26-39) Monday for the first of a three-game series in T-Mobile Park with a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota was clobbered 14-3 Sunday in the rubber match of a three-game series with the Houston Astros. The Twins are just 4-6 in their last 10 games and haven’t won a series since May 24-26 vs. the Baltimore Orioles.
Seattle prevented a three-game sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians, and snapped a three-game losing skid, with a 6-2 win Sunday. The Mariners are also 4-6 in their last 10 games.
Season series: Mariners lead 2-1.
RHP Kenta Maeda is the projected starter for the Twins. Maeda is 2-2 with a 5.27 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 across 9 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Minnesota’s 5-3 loss at the Cleveland Indians on May 22.
- No career appearances against the Mariners.
LHP Marco Gonzales makes his eighth start for the Mariners. Gonzales is 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-3, with 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 2 K at the Detroit Tigers Tuesday.
- Gonzales got drilled in a loss to the Twins on April 8 with a stat line of 4 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 2 BB and 6 K in Seattle’s 10-2 loss in Minnesota.
- vs. Twins on the current roster: 66 at-bats with a .394/.423/.561 slash line, 11/3 K/BB, 2 HR and 10 RBIs.
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Twins at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:27 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+115) | Mariners +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Mariners 9, Twins 5
Money line (ML)
GIMME the MARINERS (+120) for 1 unit because the Twins are being priced like they are the same team from the past two seasons when in reality Minnesota is worse in all phases of the game.
Maeda has just been activated off of the 10-day IL and the Twins are hoping he’s finally right because his 2021 numbers have fallen off a cliff.
For instance, Maeda has gone from the 88th percentile or better to the 27th percentile or worse in the following advanced pitching metrics: K%, hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected opponent’s wOBA and expected ERA.
Also, Minnesota’s bullpen went from the third-highest WAR in 2020 to the 24th-ranked WAR thus far in 2021.
These sharp declines in pitching numbers for both Maeda and Minnesota’s bullpen are the reason why the Twins are just 2-7 in Maeda’s nine starts this season and why I’m more fading Minnesota than BETTING the MARINERS (+120).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS -1.5 (+165) for a quarter unit because of the aforementioned rationale and Minnesota’s last five losses have all been by at least two runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8 (-110) for a half unit because Gonzales is a fringe rotation guy, and Maeda is in the midst of a career-worst season with the Twins going Over the total in seven of his nine starts.
Furthermore, more than 95% of the money at the time of writing is on the Under (according to Pregame.com) and my instinct is to fade such a lopsided sports betting market.
That being said, I’d imagine the big bucks being wagered on the Under is “sharp” money considering who’s betting the Under in a Twins-Mariners Monday game with two NBA playoff games also on the sports calendar.
For that reason, I can only “LEAN” to the OVER 8 (-110).
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