The Minnesota Twins (0-1) meet the Milwaukee Brewers (1-0) in Game 2 of their three-game set Saturday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee rallied Thursday with a 3-run bottom of the 9th to force extra innings, which led to a CF Lorenzo Cain fielder’s choice walk-off win against Minnesota on Opening Day.
Season series: Brewers 1-0.
RHP Jose Berrios is on the mound Saturday for the Twins. In 2020, Berrios was 5-4 with a 4.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 63 IP across 12 starts.
- 2020 vs. Brewers: Win in 6 IP with 0 ER, 1 H, 9 K and 1 BB in 1 start.
- 2021 Spring Training: 2-2 with a 3.50 ERA (18 IP, 7 ER, 19 H, 18 K and 5 BB) in 5 starts.
RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 2021 season debut for the Brewers. Last season, he was 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 13.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 59 2/3 IP over 12 appearances (9 starts).
- 2020 vs. Twins: No-decision in 5 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 5 K and 3 BB in 1 start.
- 2021 Spring Training: 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 26 K and 6 BB) in 5 starts.
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Twins at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Brewers 4, Twins 1
Money line (ML)
Burnes’ second favorite pitch in his arsenal is his cutter and it is electric. Several Twins hitters have a negative run value vs. cutters including 3B Josh Donaldson and CF Byron Buxton.
Also, Berrios’ numbers significantly decline in road starts throughout his career, seeing increases in ERA (3.57 at home to 4.79 on the road) and WHIP (1.15 at home to 1.38 on the road) while striking out one less batter per nine innings.
This is a “Pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market with roughly 85% of the money on the Brew Crew but around 80% of the total bets placed are on the Twins, according to Pregame.com.
It’s generally more profitable to follow the money rather than the crowd of people. The overnight baseball bettors hammered Milwaukee’s money line, which caused bookmakers to lower it to the current number.
We are a little late to the party so BET BREWERS (-135) for a half-unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
We can essentially copy and paste the same market movement handicap to this section. The “sharp” money is rolling with the Under but the public is on the Over.
Minnesota’s batting numbers declined in 2020’s 60-game sprint and Milwaukee had a bottom-10 lineup last season.
For me, Burnes is a sleeper for the NL Cy Young coming into this year and he pitched great in Spring Training.
I am a tad nervous the Brewers’ lineup can get to Berrios, who’s less effective on the road, but he was dealing in his start last year against Milwaukee.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a half-unit.
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