The Minnesota Twins (10-6) and Milwaukee Brewers (6-7) start a three-game interleague series Monday at Miller Park with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. We analyze the Twins-Brewers MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
The Twins come to town riding a four-game losing streak, chiefly impacted by the absence of 3B Josh Donaldson (calf), who was placed on the 10-day injured list Friday. Milwaukee isn’t in much better shape, having dropped two of three games in a home series with the Cincinnati Reds.
Twins at Brewers: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Randy Dobnak at RHP Adrian Houser
Dobnak continues to induce plenty of groundballs (68.2%) and throw less-than-dominant smoke and mirrors (4.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) to wildly successful results (0.60 ERA) through three starts.
- Given his absurdly fortunate 92.3% left-on-base rate and .205 BABIP, he’s bound to see worse results soon.
Houser also has relied on groundballs (74.1%) and poor command (6.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9) to slip upward into a 0.75 ERA.
- Houser has split roles in his short MLB career, slipping a bit as a starter (4.08 ERA in 20 starts, compared to 1.96 in 26 relief appearances).
- Even with those highly fortunate indicators, the righty has thrived during his Miller Park starts: 2.78 ERA in 22 appearances (eight starts).
- If Houser is paired with catcher Manny Pina, boost his outlook; The battery holds a 1.89 ERA in 38 innings together.
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Twins at Brewers: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Twins
- 3B Josh Donaldson (calf) out
- C Willians Astudillo (COVID-19) out
- SP Rich Hill (shoulder) out
- SP Homer Bailey (biceps) out
- RP Zack Littell (hamstring) out
Brewers
- OF Ryan Braun (finger) questionable
- 2B Luis Urias (COVID-19) questionable
- OF Lorenzo Cain (personal) opted out for the season
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Twins at Brewers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Monday at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Brewers 6, Twins 4
Moneyline (ML)
- Twins -106
- Brewers -106
Both starting pitchers are ripe for a letdown, but both clubs have elite bullpens, and Houser gets to face a Twins lineup without Donaldson.
Since the lines are even, I’ll BET BREWERS (-106).
New to sports betting? A winning $10 a bet on the Brewers would return a profit of $9.43.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Twins -1 (+120)
- Brewers +1 (-143)
PASS on this pair of run lines. Go stronger and BET the alternate line of BREWERS -1.5 (+185).
A winning $10 bet on the Brewers RL would return a profit of $18.50.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 8.5 (-110)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
There’s not much of a payoff here, but I’d lean toward the OVER, considering how much Dobnak and Houser are teetering on a negative statistical regression. Still, Houser’s familiarity with Milwaukee — even against this tough offense — should help him more, especially with Donaldson on the IL.
A winning $10 bet on the Over 8.5 would return a profit of $9.09 if there are 9 or more total runs.
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