The Minnesota Twins (47-63) meet the Houston Astros (65-45) Saturday for the third game of their four-game series at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Michael Pineda is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins. Pineda is 4-6 with a 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 76 1/3 IP over 15 starts.
- Owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through three starts in the second half.
RHP Luis Garcia is the projected starter for the Astros. Garcia is 7-6 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9 in 100 2/3 IP in 18 starts and two relief appearances.
- Has been torched for 11 runs on 14 hits over his last 9 1/3 IP.
- Has registered a 2.24 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home.
Twins at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:13 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Astros -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-107) | Astros -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Astros 5, Twins 4
Money line (ML)
Minnesota went into this series a disappointing 6-13 since the break but has taken two straight from Houston.
The Astros had been 9-5 over their previous 14 games. They were returning home from a successful, but taxing, road trip that saw them bat .287/.346/.520 (.866 OPS) over eight games against the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Twins were solid plays as underdogs the last two days, but look for some regression – or rather progression – to the mean for the Astros on Saturday. Garcia is the better starter; Houston is much the better club. Current Astro bats own an aggregate .860 OPS and .244 isolated power against Pineda.
BACK THE ASTROS (-250).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Analytics swing both ways when looking betting the total for this one. Bettors liking an Over may want to consider a HOUSTON -1.5 (-115) play in lieu of the money line wager.
I peg the Minnesota ‘pen as being undervalued and the Houston offense being overvalued. A continuation of closely played ballgames this series seems likely.
Over/Under (O/U)
The pitching, batting, starters, relievers, trends and splits all tumble into placing this game around the 8.75-run range. PASS.
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