The Minnesota Twins (39-52) and Detroit Tigers (42-51) close out their three-game series Sunday at Comerica Park. The first pitch of the series finale is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Detroit swept Saturday’s doubleheader, shutting out Minnesota 1-0 in the opener (7 innings) and taking the nightcap 5-4 in extra frames (8 innings).
Season series: Twins lead 7-4.
LHP J.A. Happ is Minnesota’s projected starter. Happ is 5-4 with a 5.90 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 across 16 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-3, with 7 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 8 K vs. Detroit July 8.
- Happ is 1-0 against the Tigers this season with a 3.27 ERA (11 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 12 K in two starts.
- vs. Tigers on the current roster: 128 at-bats with a .281/.336/.406 slash line, 34/9 K/BB, 3 HR and 7 RBIs.
RHP Wily Peralta is on the mound for the Tigers. Peralta is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA (26 IP, 6 ER), 0.89 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 over five starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision in Detroit’s 12-9 loss at Minnesota July 11 with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
- vs. Twins on the current roster: 51 at-bats with a .177/.259/.275 slash line, 8/6 K/BB, 1 HR and 2 RBIs.
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Twins at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:41 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Tigers +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+115) | Tigers +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Tigers 8, Twins 5
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Tigers (+115) First 5 Innings since I “lean” to Detroit’s First 5 Innings run line and because Happ has been terrible on the road this season. Happ is 1-3 with an 8.29 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.78 WHIP and 3.4 K/BB rate in seven road starts.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Happ has the fifth-highest home run per nine-inning rate amongst qualified starters (minimum of 80 IP) and grades out in the 18th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, whiff rate and barrel rate.
“LEAN” to the TIGERS +0.5 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Detroit’s lineup can do damage to Happ and Peralta exited his previous start against the Twins after the fifth inning with a 4-1 lead before Minnesota’s lineup nuked Detroit’s bullpen.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 10 (-115) for 1 unit is my favorite play in Twins-Tigers partially because there’s been “sharp line movement” towards the Over as it’s been juiced up to -115 since the opener.
Also, these teams have a combined 14-6 O/U record when these starters are on the mound (Twins are 11-4 O/U in Happ starts) and Minnesota has played to the highest rate of Overs in division games and road games.
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