The Minnesota Twins (20-12) look to halt their two-game skid when they visit the Detroit Tigers (13-16) Thursday for the first game of a four-game set. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park. We analyze the Twins-Tigers betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Twins at Tigers: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Randy Dobnak vs. LHP Matt Boyd
Dobnak has earned a win in each of his last five starts, and now boasts a 1.78 ERA. He hasn’t exactly been dominant, with 16 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings (4.7 K/9), but a 62% groundball rate and .231 BABIP have helped limit the damage.
- The sample is just 36 innings, but Dobnak has been successful on the road to this point in his career. He has put up a 1.25 ERA, with 22 strikeouts (5.5 K/9) and just one home run allowed.
- He has faced the Tigers twice in his career, one of which came as a starter. He allowed just three base runners and no earned runs in seven innings, along with nine strikeouts.
Boyd kept the ball in the park for just the second time in his last start, an outing in which he allowed two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, with six strikeouts. His current 10.4 K/9 hasn’t made up for his ugly 8.48 ERA and 2.5 HR/9.
- He has made two starts at home this season, allowing 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings (10.24 ERA). For his career, he has posted a 4.19 ERA and 8.0 K/9 at Comerica Park, compared to a 5.90 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in all other parks.
- He hasn’t faced the Twins in 2020, but did see them three times in 2019. He whiffed 26 batters in 19 innings, but surrendered 15 earned runs (7.11 ERA) and eight homers.
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Twins at Tigers: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Twins
- 3B Josh Donaldson (calf) out
- OF Byron Buxton (shoulder) out
- OF Max Kepler (foot) questionable
- C Mitch Garver (ribs) out
Tigers
- OF JaCoby Jones (calf) questionable
- 1B C.J. Cron (knee) out for season
- 3B Harold Castro (hamstring) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Twins at Tigers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Twins 6, Tigers 4
Moneyline (ML)
- Twins -150
- Tigers +135
The Minnesota offense is missing a few key right-handed bats, but in Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano, they still have the firepower to rough up the homer-prone left-hander.
On the other side, Dobnak hasn’t been as strong as the surface numbers would suggest, but he gets a good matchup today. The Detroit bats have the league’s third-lowest OBP and highest K% vs. right-handed pitching. The TWINS (-150) should come out on top.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Twins -1.5 (+100)
- Tigers +1.5 (-121)
Of all the losses the Tigers have piled up already, all but one have been by multiple runs. Stick with the trend, and look for the TWINS -1.5 (+100) to cover the run line and win by at least 2.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 9.5 (-110)
- Under 9.5 (-110)
Until Boyd shows he can consistently keep the ball in the park, good offenses like the Twins are good bets to hold up their end of the total. Even though Dobnak has been solid and has a soft matchup, he’s unlikely to completely shut down the Tigers. A small play on the OVER 9.5 (-110) is the recommendation here.
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