The Minnesota Twins (39-50) and Detroit Tigers (40-51) start their three-game series with the first game of a seven-inning doubleheader Saturday at Comerica Park in Detroit. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This originally was slated to be a four-game series but Friday’s doubleheader was rained out and only one of those games will be made up this weekend.
Season series: Twins lead 7-2.
LHP Charlie Barnes makes his MLB debut Saturday for the Twins. The 25-year-old lefty was a fourth-round pick for Minnesota in the 2017 MLB Draft.
In Triple-A this season, Barnes was 5-2 with a 3.88 ERA (58 IP, 25 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 across 11 starts.
RHP Jose Urena is Detroit’s projected starter. Urena is 2-8 with a 6.43 ERA (77 IP, 55 ER), 1.69 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 across 16 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 10-5, with 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 3 K at the Texas Rangers July 6.
- Urena is 0-1 vs. the Twins this year with an 8.59 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 6 BB and 8 K in two starts.
- vs. Twins on the current roster: 44 at-bats with a .341/.420/.523 slash line, 11/6 K/BB, 2 HR and 8 RBIs.
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Twins at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:46 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+135) | Tigers +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Twins 6, Tigers 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the TWINS (-120) for a half unit since Urena is having an awful season with pitching peripherals as terrible as his basic numbers and Detroit’s lineup struggles against left-handed pitching.
For instance, the Tigers rank in the bottom 8 of the majors vs. lefty pitching in advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA, OPS and BB/K.
Furthermore, Urena has a 6.41 FIP against current Twins hitters with a .410 expected wOBA, .570 expected slugging percentage and 91.1 mph exit velocity.
We don’t really know what we are getting from Barnes since it’s his major league debut but you could argue that Urena should be optioned to the minor leagues based on his 2021 first-half performance.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I don’t see any value in taking the Twins -1.5 (+135) when their starter is making his first-ever big league start, this being a seven-inning game and Minnesota having the worst run line record in MLB (34-55 ATS).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-115) for a half unit because I prefer the Minnesota side more than the total.
However, since I don’t have much confidence in either starter, both bullpens rank in the bottom 7 of WAR and the Twins have a league-high 70.0% Over percentage in division games (28-12-3 O/U).
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