The Minnesota Twins (12-20) roll into the Windy City Tuesday for their first three-game set this season with the Chicago White Sox (19-13) at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. White Sox with MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota has been off the past two days after its game against the Detroit Tigers Sunday was rained out. The Twins, who are 5-5 in their last 10 games, split the two games they did play the Tigers after dropping three of four with the Texas Rangers.
Chicago just pummeled the Kansas City Royals in a three-game sweep, outscoring them 21-4 for the series, and has won seven of its last 10 games.
RHP Kenta Maeda gets the start for the Twins. Maeda is 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 across 6 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 6-5, in 5 1/3 IP with 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 8 K vs. the Rangers May 3.
- Career vs. the White Sox: 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA (15 IP, 5 ER), 1.07 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 over 3 starts, all in Chicago’s ballpark.
- Vs. White Sox on the current roster: 71 at-bats with a .254/.303/.493 slash line, 16/5 K/BB rate, 4 HR and 9 RBIs.
RHP Dylan Cease is on the rubber for the White Sox. Cease is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 over 6 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 9-0, in 6 IP with 0 ER, 1 H, 3 BB and 11 K at the Cincinnati Reds May 4.
- Career vs. the Twins: 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 2.66 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 in 3 starts.
- Vs. Twins on the current roster: 35 at-bats with a .371/.465/.571 slash line, 6/7 K/BB rate, 2 HR and 10 RBIs.
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Twins at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:14 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | White Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-200) | White Sox -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
White Sox 5, Twins 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the WHITE SOX (-125) for 1 unit because Cease has looked much better thus far than Maeda, and Chicago has a significant edge in bullpen pitching.
Maeda’s pitching has seen some serious regression year over year. His K% has dropped 11.1%, his hard-hit rate has increased by 20% and his wOBA increased 168 percentage points from this year to last.
The opposite is true for Cease, whose numbers have improved year over year. Statcast grades Cease in the 85th percentile of both chase rate and K%, 74th percentile in expected wOBA and 79th percentile in expected slugging percentage.
Furthermore, Minnesota’s lineup should be a tad easier to navigate since the Twins’ most productive hitter—OF Byron Buxton—is on the 10-day IL.
Also, Chicago’s bullpen ranks seventh in WAR, fifth in FIP and the fewest runs scored per nine, whereas Minnesota’s relievers have been credited with the most losses and are 26th in FIP and 28th in WAR.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Maeda has pitched well against the White Sox -1.5 (+165) and Cease has gotten roughed up in his three starts vs. the Twins +1.5 (-200).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) because I think Maeda gets on track sooner than later and I am a believer that Cease’s recent form is closer to the pitcher he’ll be moving forward.
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