The Minnesota Twins (31-22) play the Chicago Cubs (31-20) at Wrigley Field Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET in the second game of a three-game set. Below, we analyze the Twins-Cubs MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Chicago leads 1-0.
Twins at Cubs: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Michael Pineda vs. RHP Alec Mills
Pineda: 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 17 2/3 IP over 3 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 13): No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 8 K and 1 BB in a 7-5 Twins win against the Cleveland Indians.
Mills: 5-3 with a 3.93 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 52 2/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 13): No-hitter (win), 12-0, 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 5 K and 3 BB at the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Career home splits: 3-3 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 59 K and 24 BB in 55 2/3 IP over 16 games (8 starts).
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Twins at Cubs: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Twins
- 2B Luis Arraez (knee) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Twins at Cubs: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Twins 5, Cubs 1
Money line (ML)
Mills is coming off the high of a no-hitter in his last start against the Brewers and historically pitchers have a letdown game in their follow-up start. The Cubs (+115) don’t have a good enough offense to beat a quality Twins (-129) team if Mills regresses back to his normal form.
The market agrees, hence Minnesota being favored on the road against a first-place Cubs team. I’ll side with the market on this one and BET TWINS (-129) to win.
New to sports betting? A $129 bet on the Twins (-129) earns a $100 profit if Minnesota beats Chicago.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
As an away favorite, the Twins -1.5 (+125) have a 6-14 run line record with a -1.1 run line margin. Minnesota’s offense isn’t nearly as explosive as it was in 2019.
The Cubs +1.5 (-150) have the best cover percentage in the majors (75%) and are 5-3 RL as home underdogs.
PASS ON THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
Back to the regression of Minnesota’s offense, the Twins have the highest percentage of Unders in MLB (69%). What that tells me is the market isn’t adjusting to Minnesota’s decline in hitting. The Under has cashed in five consecutive Twins games.
BetMGM’s projected total is low but I’ll still TAKE UNDER 8 (-110) on a smaller play.
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