The Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2) head back to the FedExForum Tuesday for Game 5 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the Memphis Grizzlies (2-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and airs on TNT. Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Minnesota evened the series by winning Game 4 119-118 Saturday in what was a redemption game for T-Wolves big Karl-Anthony Towns who scored just 8 points in 32:46 minutes of work in Game 3.
Grizzlies SG Desmond Bane and backup PF Brandon Clarke stepped up Saturday with Bane scoring a game-high 34 points and Clarke adding 15 points on 77.8% shooting off the bench.
The T-Wolves outperformed the Grizzlies in three of the “four factors” in Game 4, especially in free-throw attempt rate where Minnesota nearly doubled Memphis.
Timberwolves at Grizzlies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Timberwolves +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Grizzlies -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Timberwolves +6.5 (-120) | Grizzlies -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 231.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Timberwolves at Grizzlies key injuries
Timberwolves
- None
Grizzlies
- None
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Timberwolves at Grizzlies picks and predictions
Prediction
Grizzlies 116, Timberwolves 113
Money line
LEAN to the TIMBERWOLVES (+205) because of the fat payout and Minnesota is getting better play from their stars.
KAT got ripped for his Game 3 performance, and rightfully so, but he is averaging 21.3 points on 70.7% true shooting (.565/.417/.875) with 10.8 rebounds. T-Wolves SF Anthony Edwards is scoring a series-best 24.8 points on 65.4% true shooting (.485/.421/.864).
On the other hand Grizzlies PG Ja Morant, the league’s Most Improved Player, is struggling from the field with a 42.3% effective field goal shooting rate. PF Jaren Jackson Jr. has a minus-10 net rating and has gotten at least 5 fouls in three games this series.
The T-Wolves plus the points is a sharp play and I typically like sprinkling on an underdog’s ML when betting them to cover the spread.
These teams have similar identities but the Grizzlies are more efficient and the home team for a pivotal Game 5.
Hence LEAN TIMBERWOLVES (+205).
The prediction is an honest assessment of Game 5.
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Against the spread
Definitely BET TIMBERWOLVES +6.5 (-120) instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis and because there’s reverse line movement headed towards Minnesota in the betting market.
Game 5’s look-ahead line was “Grizzlies -7” and has been lowered down to the current number despite a majority of the action being on Memphis, according to Tipico Sportsbook.
There also isn’t 6 points worth of difference between these teams. They are tied 2-2 ATS in the series but the Grizzlies’ Game 3 win and cover featured their incredible comeback from down 26 points. The T-Wolves were clearly the right side for Game 3.
The TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite bet in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 231.5 (-112) because the total has been steamed down by sharp line movement, both teams have a below-average offensive rating in these playoffs and the Under has cashed in four of the last six Timberwolves-Grizzlies.
However, I cannot fully get there on the Under because this is the fastest-paced series in the postseason with the highest free-throw attempt rate.
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