The Minnesota Timberwolves (24-23) head to the Chase Center Thursday for a 10 p.m. ET game with the Golden State Warriors (35-13). Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State won its third straight game Tuesday by crushing Dallas 130-92 at home. Over the past two weeks, the Warriors are 5-3 straight-up (SU) and 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS).
Minnesota fended off the Trail Blazers in Portland for a 109-107 win as 3-point road favorites Tuesday. The T-Wolves are 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last 14 days.
These teams are tied 1-1 SU and ATS in their head-to-head series this season with the home team winning and covering both games.
Timberwolves at Warriors odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Timberwolves +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Warriors -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +6.5 (-120) | Warriors -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Timberwolves at Warriors key injuries
Timberwolves
- PG Patrick Beverley (ankle) questionable
Warriors
- PF Draymond Green (calf) out
- SF Andre Iguodala (hip) out
- C James Wiseman (knee) out
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Timberwolves at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 121, Timberwolves 117
Money line
PASS because I only “lean” to Minnesota plus the points but don’t like it enough to sprinkle on the Timberwolves (+205).
But, the Warriors (-260) are the best team at home by adjusted net rating and this is a primetime matchup versus a young and up-and-coming T-Wolves team.
Also, Warriors wing Andrew Wiggins always balls versus his former team, and Golden State just diced up a good Dallas defense for 130 points.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the TIMBERWOLVES +6.5 (-120) mostly because they are well-rested and are playing a fatigued Warriors -6.5 (-105).
For instance, this is Golden State’s fifth game in the past seven days whereas Minnesota is only playing in its third game.
Granted, both teams last played Tuesday, but the T-Wolves are 7-5 ATS (plus-4.0 ATS margin) with a rest advantage, and the Warriors are 6-9-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage.
However, most of the other trends point towards Golden State, and my favorite play in this game is the Over.
“LEAN” TIMBERWOLVES +6.5 (-120).
Over/Under
BET the OVER 229.5 (-107) for 1 unit because this total has been steamed from the 228-point opener up to the current price for several valid reasons.
Namely, two of three referees assigned to this game have officiated way more Overs than Unders. In fact, the officiating crew has a combined 56-41 O/U, which is a 57.7% rate to the Over.
Furthermore, Minnesota is 7-2 O/U over the past nine games, 6-0 O/U in its last six versus teams with a winning record, and the Over has cashed in five consecutive Timberwolves-Warriors.
Both teams play at an above-average pace, have an above-average offensive rebounding rate and rank in the top-three in 3-point attempt rate.
Lastly, Golden State’s offensive edge is obviously its Hall of Fame backcourt. Minnesota forces a ton of turnovers, which transitions into easy buckets whereas the Warriors can be clumsy with the ball (29th in offensive turnover rate).
The OVER 229.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in this game.
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