The Minnesota Timberwolves (43-34) head to the Mile High City Friday for a pivotal game with the Denver Nuggets (46-31). Tip-off at Ball Arena is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Minnesota is 3 games behind Denver for the sixth and final non-play-in seed in the Western Conference with five games remaining. A loss to the Nuggets Friday will likely mean the play-in tourney for the Timberwolves.
The T-Wolves have lost four of their last five games — 1-4 against the spread (ATS) — including back-to-back road games at the Boston Celtics Sunday (134-112) and the Toronto Raptors Wednesday (125-102).
The Nuggets are 4-1 straight up (SU) and 2-3 ATS in their last five games and have won three straight versus the Oklahoma City Thunder Saturday (113-107), at the Charlotte Hornets Monday (113-109) and at the Indiana Pacers Wednesday (125-118).
Minnesota 2-1 SU and ATS versus Denver this season and the total is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U).
Timberwolves at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Timberwolves +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Nuggets -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Timberwolves +3.5 (-115) | Nuggets -3.5 (-107)
- Over/Under: 240.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Timberwolves at Nuggets key injuries
Timberwolves
- SG Malik Beasley (ankle) out
- PF Jaden McDaniels (ankle) out
Nuggets
- PF JaMychal Green (wrist) questionable
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
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Timberwolves at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Timberwolves 119, Nuggets 116
Money line
LEAN to the TIMBERWOLVES (+125) only because I prefer their spread more.
The gap between Denver big Nikola Jokic and Minnesota big Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t as wide as the gap between KAT’s and Jokic’s supporting casts.
The reason the T-Wolves are 2-1 SU and ATS versus the Nuggets this season is because KAT has outplayed Jokic in Minnesota’s two victories. KAT has a much better true shooting percentage and net rating than Jokic in their three head-to-head meetings.
T-Wolves wing Anthony Edwards is a legit No. 2 scoring option whereas the Nuggets are without Jokic’s best two teammates in Murray and Porter.
Minnesota also has a major strength-on-weakness in ball security. The Timberwolves are second in adjusted defensive turnover rate (TOV%), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and score the most points off of turnovers per game. Denver is 26th in adjusted offensive TOV% (per CTG) and allows the fourth-most points off of turnovers per game.
I prefer Minnesota’s spread but the TIMBERWOLVES (+125) are the right side.
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Against the spread
BET the TIMBERWOLVES +3.5 (-115) for 1 unit based on the previous analysis and because there’s been a sharp line move towards Minnesota. The T-Wolves opened as 4.5-point underdogs but have been steamed down to the current number but there’s still value in Minnesota at this price.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 240.5 (-112) as a fade against the massive line movement the total market has seen.
The Timberwolves-Nuggets game opened with a 233.5-point total before it was flooded with Over money because a lot of situational trends point to this being a higher-scoring game.
However, an Over bet on a 240-point total is in peril if either team has an off-shooting quarter or if the game is a blowout. One-sided games kill second-half action.
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