The Minnesota Timberwolves (12-15) travel to the Ball Arena Wednesday to play the Denver Nuggets (14-13) at 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Minnesota ended a five-game losing skid Sunday with a 116-111 win at the Portland Trail Blazers as 3-point road underdogs.
In December, the T-Wolves are 1-5 straight-up (SU), 2-3 ATS and 4-1 O/U with the third-worst efficiency differential (minus-12.2 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Denver has won back-to-back games at the San Antonio Spurs this past weekend and vs. the Washington Wizards Monday. The Nuggets are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS and 6-1 O/U with the 13th-ranked efficiency differential (plus-2.3 points per 100 possessions) this month, per CTG.
The Nuggets have beaten the T-Wolves in 12 straight games, including their first meeting this season, 93-91, Oct. 30 as 1.5-point road underdogs.
Timberwolves at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Timberwolves +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Nuggets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +4.5 (-110) | Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Timberwolves at Nuggets key injuries
Timberwolves
- None.
Nuggets
- PF Aaron Gordon (back) probable
- SG Will Barton (illness) probable
Timberwolves at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 116, Timberwolves 108
Money line
PASS because the Nuggets (-190) is too expensive for an NBA regular-season favorite – even if Denver has won 12 straight over Minnesota. Also, I only “lean” to the Nuggets laying the points so I wouldn’t risk nearly two-to-one for an outright victory.
Furthermore, the T-Wolves actually have the most efficient 5-man lineup in the NBA (CTG), and it hasn’t been confirmed if Barton and Gordon can play yet for the Nuggets.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the NUGGETS -4.5 (-110) for a half-unit because they’ve owned the T-Wolves since the beginning of 2018-19 and continue to match up very well against Minnesota.
For instance, the T-Wolves attempt the second-most 3-pointers per game and have the 23rd-best 3-point percentage. While the Nuggets are eighth in both 3-pointers allowed per game and 3-point shooting percentage.
Moreover, Minnesota crashes the glass on misses and has the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate in the Association. But, Denver has the fifth-highest defensive rebounding rate and allows the fewest second-chance points per game.
Most importantly, the T-Wolves looked like a feisty, up-and-coming team entering December but lost their first five games this month, all against teams with a winning record.
Not only is Denver trending better than Minnesota but the Nuggets could also be getting a little healthier for this game.
“LEAN” to the NUGGETS -4.5 (-110) and I’d upgrade that to a “like” if Barton and Gordon are active Wednesday.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 223.5 (-112) because I much prefer the Denver side more than the total, and we are getting to the party way late. According to Pregame.com, the lookahead line for this total was 218 and has already been steamed up by “sharp money“.
Also, the Over has cashed in Minnesota’s last four games and in Denver’s last four games as a favorite. Plus both teams grade below the 50th percentile in transition offense so I don’t expect an up-and-down game.
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