The 8th-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves take on the top-seeded Denver Nuggets Sunday in Game 1 of the Western Conference quarterfinals. Tip from Ball Arena is set for 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The T-wolves survived the play-in tournament with a 120-95 beating of the Oklahoma City Thunder Friday as 6-point favorites. Minnesota fell 108-102 in overtime at the Lakers in the 1st game of the tournament as an 8.5-point underdog Tuesday. The Wolves have the longest odds to come out of the West at +6600
Despite being the top seed, Denver is 2nd to Phoenix (+180) in odds to come out of the West at +350. They were 2nd only to Memphis in home record at 34-7 on the season. This really shouldn’t be a series as Denver is -500 to win it outright.
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Timberwolves at Nuggets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:49 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Timberwolves +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Nuggets -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +8.5 (-115) | Nuggets -8.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Timberwolves at Nuggets key injuries
Timberwolves
- C Rudy Gobert (back) questionable
- F Jaden McDaniels (hand) out
- G Jaylen Nowell (knee) questionable
Nuggets
- None
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Timberwolves at Nuggets picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 120, Timberwolves 102
Moneyline
The teams split 4 games with each team defending its home floor this season. The Wolves (+260) will have to be marksmen to make this a series. Minnesota was middle of the pack with 36.6% from 3-point range. Gobert playing hurt underneath will cause problems, too.
Denver’s price of -350 isn’t worth the risk, however. PASS.
The series spread looks pretty cozy at DENVER -1.5 GAMES (-175) though.
Against the spread
Three of the 4 games between the teams were decided by 10 points or more. The Wolves are in over their heads. I’ll SPRINKLE NUGGETS -8.5 (-105).
Over/Under
The total is really the only dangerous scenario. The Over went 2-1-1 in the 4 head-to-head games this season. Both of Minnesota’s play-in games went Under. The Nuggets only hit 2 Overs in their last 10.
This number is attainable, but I think poor Minnesota shooting will cash the UNDER 224.5 (-110).
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