The Minnesota Timberwolves (22-22) play the second of a back-to-back Wednesday versus the Atlanta Hawks (18-25). The tip-off at State Farm Arena is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Timberwolves vs. Hawks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Minnesota (-4) beat the New York Knicks last night (Tuesday) in a 112-110 nailbiter. In January, the T-Wolves are 6-3 straight-up (SU), 5-4 ATS and third in adjusted net rating at plus-10.9, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Atlanta (+6.5) upset the Milwaukee Bucks 121-114 Monday at home, snapping a five-game losing skid (0-5 ATS). The Hawks are 27th in adjusted net rating at minus-8.8 and 29th in ATS margin at minus-7.1 in January, per CTG.
The Hawks (+1.5) beat the T-Wolves 121-110 in their first meeting this season, Dec. 6. Atlanta has won and covered its past four meetings with Minnesota.
Timberwolves at Hawks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Timberwolves +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Hawks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +1.5 (-108) | Hawks -1.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 235.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Timberwolves at Hawks key injuries
Timberwolves
- None.
Hawks
- SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) out
- C Clint Capela (ankle) out
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Timberwolves at Hawks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Timberwolves 121, Hawks 115
Money line
BET the TIMBERWOLVES (+102) for 1 unit because it’s such a better spot for them, Minnesota has been hit by sharp money, and the T-Wolves match up very well with the Hawks.
For instance, Minnesota is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight as road underdogs, 9-1 ATS on the road versus teams above-.500 and 7-4 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage.
On the other hand, Atlanta is 0-7 ATS following a win, 4-8 ATS when playing with a rest advantage and 1-11 ATS both in their last 12 as a favorite and at home.
Also, the T-Wolves have two strength-on-weakness edges in fast-break basketball and perimeter shooting.
Minnesota gets out in transition at the seventh-highest frequency and is ninth in fast-break points per game (PPG). But, Atlanta has the worst defensive efficiency in transition and ranks 20th in fast-break PPG allowed.
Furthermore, the T-Wolves are third in adjusted effective field goal shooting (eFG%) this month while the Hawks have the worst defensive eFG%.
Finally, I see this Timberwolves-Hawks game playing out differently than the previous one because Minnesota is a little healthier, and Atlanta has a couple of injuries to key players.
In fact, Minnesota was missing both starting guards in PG Patrick Beverley and D’Angelo Russell. Both are crucial to Minnesota’s operation: Russell grades in the 98th percentile of guards in adjusted on/off net rating at plus-15.4 (per CTG).
On top of that, Hawks big Clint Capela is still sidelined with an injury, and he’s one of the better rim-protecting and rebounding bigs in the Association.
BET the TIMBERWOLVES (+102).
Against the spread
PASS because the Timberwolves +1.5 (-108) doesn’t offer much insurance for our Minnesota money line wager.
Over/Under
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the OVER 235.5 (-112) because the total has been steamed up too far. The Timberwolves-Hawks total opened around 232.5 before all the Over money pushed it up to the current price.
However, the Hawks should be able to hang with the T-Wolves thanks to their strength-on-weakness edge in getting to the charity stripe.
For example, Atlanta is seventh in offensive FTA/FG rate while Minnesota is dead-last in defensive FTA/FG rate.
Plus Minnesota is 16-6 O/U on the road, and the Over has cashed in six of the past eight Timberwolves-Hawks meetings.
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