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The Baltimore Ravens enter the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft with some important needs. But as fans and analysts should know by now, Baltimore doesn’t always draft with their immediate needs at mind. In fact, that’s what regularly makes the Ravens one of the best teams in the league.
In the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Baltimore could once again buck popular opinion and grab a player they love but doesn’t necessarily fit a need. If that’s the case, don’t be shocked if Minnesota safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is the Ravens’ pick at No. 28.
Winfield has been rising up big boards since before the 2020 NFL Scouting Combine. While initially knocked for his shorter size — 5-foot-9 and 203 pounds — as folks dig into his game film, they can’t help but love him.
Winfield was a playmaker for Minnesota last season, grabbing seven interceptions and returning one for a touchdown over 12 games. He also had 58 combined tackles, including 3.5 for a loss and three sacks while forcing two fumbles. As if his production wasn’t enough of a reason to get excited, Winfield comes from a football family, with his father playing 14 years in the league as a defensive back, earning three Pro Bowl nominations in the process. That pedigree and level of production doesn’t come from nowhere though and Winfield has the combine numbers to go along with it.
Winfield is one of the fastest safeties in this draft class, tied for third with a 4.45-second 40-yard dash at the combine. His vertical jump (36 inches) is tied for seventh-highest, while his broad jump (124 inches) came in tied for 10th. Though those are all very respectable numbers, just looking at his measurables would be doing yourself and Winfield an injustice.
Where Winfield truly excels is in his head. He’s a smart player with great instincts. It doesn’t take long when watching his film to see he can read and react to what the offense is doing quickly and he seems to know where the ball is going. He’s often pointing out players pre-snap and getting the rest of the secondary into the best spot. If that reminds you of anyone Baltimore currently has on their roster, it should.
Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire put together a list of NFL comparisons for several draft prospects. According to Farrar, Winfield comps to Ravens and former Seattle Seahawks safety Earl Thomas.
When Thomas came out of Texas in 2010 at 5-foot-10 and 208 pounds, there were people who thought he should move to cornerback because he didn’t fit the physical profile they wanted for the safety position. Thomas proved the doubters wrong with a formidable competitive demeanor and all the smarts you could ever want on the field. Not that Winfield projects to be Thomas in his prime — not yet, at least — but the different for Winfield between the tape and the doubts seem similar. As a pure deep safety, Winfield has no rival in this draft class, and he excels as a desperately needed position.
Farrar hits the nail on the head here. You only need a few minutes watching Winfield on tape to get that same feeling from watching Thomas with the Ravens last year. As Farrar pointed out, Thomas is well known for being smart and physical with enough athleticism to play more outright coverage. While Baltimore has tasked him most with playing over the top as the last line and leader of the defense, it’s those major skills that saw Thomas get yet another Pro Bowl nod last season.
But as the Ravens saw with Eric Weddle, eventually Father Time catches up to everyone and being a smart player can only make up for physical losses for so long. Thomas is set to turn 31 years old before the regular season begins and this will be his 11th season in the NFL. Thomas will be the Ravens’ largest cap hit in 2021 at $16 million, according to Over The Cap, which is third-highest among all safeties currently. If Baltimore were to move on from Thomas — either via his release or trade — next offseason, the Ravens would save $6 million in 2021 and completely eliminate his $17 million cap hit in 2022. It doesn’t take a math genius to see how that’s an attractive proposition, as long as Baltimore has someone ready to take Thomas’ spot on the roster of course.
The Ravens’ haven’t been afraid of selecting a player early in the draft at a position that isn’t an immediate need. Just look back to when Baltimore took cornerback Marlon Humphrey in 2017, making him their first-round pick at No. 16 despite having their starting cornerbacks already set. Humphrey got meaningful snaps his rookie season, starting five games for an injured Jimmy Smith. But it wasn’t until his third season Humphrey really claimed a starting role on defense, becoming a star in the process. While there are no guarantees Winfield would make a similar transition into an All-Pro player, no one would wince at the idea of the Ravens taking Humphrey that early given the results.
Though Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said the draft involves an element of luck, it’s taking good players that fit your scheme regardless of having an immediate need for them, that creates the luck Baltimore has often found themselves with over the years. If Winfield becomes anywhere close to Thomas, Baltimore would be thrilled to have selected him at No. 28, even if he doesn’t start immediately.
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