The Milwaukee Bucks (16-9) head to “South Beach” Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Miami Heat (14-11) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Milwaukee has won 10 of its last 11 games including two straight over the Heat Saturday and the Cleveland Cavaliers Monday. The Bucks’ only loss in that 11-game span came in a game Giannis Antetokounmpo missed with an injury. Milwaukee is 11-14 ATS and 10-15 O/U with the fifth-best net rating.
The Heat have lost four of their last five games (1-4 ATS) including back-to-back losses against the Bucks Saturday and Memphis Grizzlies Monday. Miami is 14-11 ATS and 15-10 O/U with the ninth-best net rating.
This is the third game between these teams this season and the home side pummeled the visitors in their first two meetings. The Over cashed in each game.
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Bucks at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks -290 (bet $290 to win $100) | Heat +225 (bet $100 to win $225)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -6.5 (-110) | Heat +6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Bucks at Heat key injuries
Bucks
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (tailbone) out
- C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
Bucks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 117, Heat 103
Money line
PASS because even though Milwaukee should roll past Miami, the Bucks are too expensive for any NBA regular-season favorite. All it takes is an in-game injury or a cold shooting night for any team to lose.
Against the spread
BET BUCKS -6.5 (-110) because Milwaukee is a 60-win team, in my opinion, and 60-win teams crush injury-ravaged opponents like Miami.
Injuries have muted the excitement of this matchup between two budding rivals that have eliminated each other from consecutive postseasons. There’s no love lost between these two and I don’t see the Bucks taking it easy on the Heat just because they are banged up.
Milwaukee blasted Miami this past weekend without Giannis in the lineup. With Giannis projected to start, the Heat have to pick their poison with Giannis or F Khris Middleton. Miami wing P.J. Tucker can only guard one of them and he’ll probably get lit up in this matchup either way.
Granted, this is an ultra-square play because everyone in the market is betting Milwaukee here.
However, aside from the “fade the public” angle and a random terrible shooting night from the Bucks, what are the pro-Heat arguments?
I’ll just BET the BUCKS -6.5 (-110) for 1 unit and be somewhat surprised if it doesn’t cash.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 216.5 (-112) for a small wager because I much prefer the Milwaukee side more than the total in this contest.
However, I don’t see the Bucks having any problems scoring points against the Heat who are without their two best defensive players.
Milwaukee also allows the most 3-point attempts per game and Miami has several 3-point shooters that can get hot.
If the Bucks are hammering the Heat, I could see the OVER 216.5 (-112) cashing late from some garbage-time 3-pointers by Miami.
That said, I only “LEAN” to the OVER 216.5 (-108) because the Heat are also missing two of their best offensive players and the Bucks are sixth in defensive efficiency.
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