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The Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers meet in Game 4 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference 1st-round series on Sunday. Tip-off at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bucks vs. Pacers odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
Season series: Pacers lead 2-1
The Bucks came up just short in Game 3 on Friday, falling 121-118 in overtime, although Milwaukee covered as 6.5-point underdogs as the Over (223) cashed.
Khris Middleton did his best to will his team to a road win in Game 3, scoring 42 points on 16-of-29 shooting, while Damian Lillard managed 28 points. Both players managed 4 triples in the OT loss. Unfortunately for the Bucks, Lillard suffered an Achilles’ injury, and he is doubtful for Game 4.
The Pacers have averaged 123.0 PPG in the past 2 games after opening with a 109-94 loss in Milwaukee in Game 1. Indiana is 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in 3 playoff games, although it holds a 2-1 series edge, which is much more important.
The Over has cashed in each of the past 2 games for Indiana, and the total has ended up going high in 7 of the past 8 games since April 5.
Bucks at Pacers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bucks +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Pacers -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Bucks +9.5 (-110) | Pacers -9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Bucks at Pacers key injuries
Bucks
- F Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) out
- G Damian Lillard (Achilles) doubtful
- F Chris Livingston (illness) out
- F Khris Middleton (ankle) probable
Pacers
- G Bennedict Mathurin (shoulder) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Bucks at Pacers picks and predictions
Prediction
Pacers 119, Bucks 104
Moneyline
The Pacers (-400) will cost you 4 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not very much reward.
While Indiana is catching a break with the Bucks (+310) missing Antetokounmpo and Lillard all but likely to join him, it’s still too much risk.
PASS.
Against the spread
The PACERS -9.5 (-110) are laying a big number, but the home side is worth playing since the 2 biggest stars for the Bucks +9.5 (-110) are expected to sit.
Middleton had a giant Game 3, but even he is a little nicked up with an ankle. Plus, he can’t do it all by himself.
Indiana is ready to push Milwaukee to the brink of elimination in a season Bucks fans will be scratching their heads wondering what could have been.
Over/Under
OVER 216.5 (-115) is a good idea in Game 4.
The Bucks have been missing Antetokounmpo for the entire series, and Lillard will likely be joining him in street clothes Sunday, so it’s hard to envision where Milwaukee is going to get its scoring. However, it’s also hard to figure where it will get its defense.
Indiana has averaged 123.0 PPG in the past 2 games, cashing the Over in each outing. The Pacers have cashed the Over in 4 of the past 6 outings since April 10, all against playoff teams.
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