The Milwaukee Bucks (15-8) visit the Denver Nuggets (12-10) at the Ball Arena Monday for a 9:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Bucks-Nuggets NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Milwaukee has won and covered four straight following back-to-back road losses to the New Orleans Pelicans and Charlotte Hornets a couple of weeks ago. Over their last six games, the Bucks are only 4-2 but have the highest net rating and second-highest effective field goal percentage in the NBA.
Seven of Denver’s eight previous games were on the road, and the Nuggets were 5-3 overall in those games (5-3 against the spread). The Nuggets have lost three of their past four games with the win coming against the red-hot Utah Jazz Jan. 31.
Denver won both games against Milwaukee last season and have won six of the previous eight meetings (5-3 ATS).
Bucks at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Nuggets +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Against the spread/ATS: Bucks -4.5 (-105) | Nuggets +4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 233.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Bucks at Nuggets: Key injuries
Bucks
- Nothing affecting the betting odds.
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) questionable
- SG Gary Harris (thigh) out
- SG P.J. Dozier (hamstring) out
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Bucks at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 121, Nuggets 110
Money line (ML)
PASS since Milwaukee is the right side, but Bucks (-175) is too rich for my blood.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Even though the Nuggets won both meetings last season vs. the Bucks, Nikola Jokic struggled in those games, averaging 12.5 points per game on .367/.250/.500 shooting with a 91 offensive rating. And Denver’s 14-point victory over Milwaukee last season came against a Giannis Antetokounmpo– and Khris Middleton-less Bucks team.
Also, Murray is questionable with a knee injury and Bucks PG Jrue Holiday has outplayed Murray in their 11 meetings. Holiday is averaging more points and assists per game on better shooting, and his teams have a 6-5 record in those games.
Finally, the Bucks have an edge from behind the arc and can negate what the Nuggets do well (grab offensive rebounds). Milwaukee is the third-best 3-point shooting team in the Association and Denver is ranked 27th in defensive effective field goal percentage.
The Bucks are even worse at defending the three. The Nuggets have the sixth-highest 3-point percentage, but Denver only attempts the 19th-most threes per game. During their four-game win streak, Milwaukee held opponents to 110 or fewer points in each game.
I’ll TAKE the BUCKS -4.5 (-105) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because my numbers aren’t that far off BetMGM’s projection hence there’s no value for me to bet the total. For the record, the Over has cashed in five of the previous six Bucks-Nuggets games in Denver so I lean Over 233.5 (-110) but the total is too sharp for me to bet.
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Also see:
- NBA players react to Tom Brady, Buccaneers winning Super Bowl (Rookie Wire)
- Trade rumor rankings (Hoops Hype)
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