The Milwaukee Bucks (48-30) travel to the Windy City Tuesday to play the Chicago Bulls (45-33) in a Central Division showdown. Tip-off at the United Center is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Bulls odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Milwaukee is just 2-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the last 5 games, including back-to-back home losses to the Los Angeles Clippers Friday (153-119) and Dallas Mavericks Sunday (118-112).
Chicago is 3-2 SU and ATS in the last 5 games, but got pummeled 127-109 Saturday by the Miami Heat.
The Bucks are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS versus the Bulls and the total is 0-3 Over/Under (O/U). Also, Milwaukee is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings with the Bulls and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 visits to Chicago.
Bucks at Bulls odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:23 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Bucks -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Bulls +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Against the spread: Bucks -5.5 (-105) | Bulls +5.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 233.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Bucks at Bulls key injuries
Bucks
- SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) probable
Bulls
- PG Lonzo Ball (knee) out
- SG Alex Caruso (back) questionable
- SG Zach LaVine (knee) probable
[tipico]
Bucks at Bulls odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 122, Bulls 111
Money line
PASS even though the Bucks (-210) should trample the Bulls (+170) who have notoriously played terrible against elite opponents this season.
Chicago is 4-20 SU versus teams in the top-10 of net efficiency with a minus-11.4 adjusted net rating (ranked 26th) and a minus-6.7 ATS margin (ranked dead-last), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
However, I’d rather bet Milwaukee’s spread than lay it with the Bucks (-210).
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Against the spread
BET the BUCKS -5.5 (-105) for 1 unit because this is a bad matchup for the Bulls +5.5 (-105) who have two ball-dominant wings (Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan) who like to score in iso sets.
But, the Bucks are obviously better in that department with 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and SF Khris Middleton. Giannis is on a tear lately, averaging 32.8 points on 58.7% shooting with 12.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists since the beginning of March.
Furthermore, Milwaukee has a plus-11.3 rebound-per-game margin and plus-2.7 turnover-per-game margin versus Chicago this season.
The most important thing in basketball is accumulating possessions, i.e. ball security and rebounding. Since the Bulls are less offensively efficient than the Bucks, Chicago cannot overcome losing the possession battle.
Finally, this is a much better spot for Milwaukee, who is 16-9 ATS as road favorites. Chicago is 4-6 ATS as home underdogs and 1-10 ATS in the last 11 games versus teams with 60.0% or better winning percentage.
The BUCKS -5.5 (-105) is my favorite bet in this game.
Over/Under
PASS because my numbers align with the market’s projected score so there’s no value for me in this total.
For what it’s worth, Milwaukee is 39-39 O/U and 13-12 O/U as road favorites while Chicago is 37-39-2 O/U and 6-4 O/U as home underdogs.
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