The Milwaukee Bucks (6-6) meet the Boston Celtics (5-6) Friday at TD Garden for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Milwaukee has split its last six games (3-3 against the spread) with the last two being road wins over the New York Knicks Wednesday and Philadelphia 76ers Monday. The Bucks are 6-6 ATS and 3-9 Over/Under (O/U) with the 16th-best net rating in the NBA (plus-0.2).
Boston is also 3-3 overall in its last six games but has covered in four of those contests. The Celtics hammered the Raptors 104-88 as 3-point home favorites Wednesday. Boston is 6-5 ATS and 4-6-1 O/U with the 17th-ranked net rating (minus-0.7).
The Celtics won two of their three regular-season meetings with the Bucks last year and covered all three. In fact, Boston has covered five of its past six games against Milwaukee and the Over has cashed in five straight meetings.
Bucks at Celtics odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Celtics +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -1.5 (-120) | Celtics +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Bucks at Celtics key injuries
Bucks
- PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle) probable
- C Brook Lopez (back) out
- SF Khris Middleton (health and safety protocols) out
- SG Donte DiVincenzo (ankle) out
Celtics
- SF Jaylen Brown (hamstring) questionable
Bucks at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Celtics 110, Bucks 106
Money line
GIMME the CELTICS (+105) for 1 unit.
Boston ranks higher in net efficiency than Milwaukee according to a couple of advanced basketball analytic sources including CleaningTheGlass.com and ShotQuality.com. The former doesn’t track garbage time stats, and the latter compares each team’s adjusted shot quality differential.
The Celtics play the third-highest frequency of isolation offense, and Milwaukee allows the second-worst points per possession vs. isolation offense.
Also, Milwaukee gets into transition at the fifth-highest rate but has the third-worst defensive effective field goal shooting, and Boston’s defense is eighth points per possession allowed in transition.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, a majority of Boston’s field goal attempts come from mid-range jumpers. Well, Milwaukee is 19th in defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range attempts.
Lastly, a vast majority of the market is betting the Bucks here (according to Pregame.com) so there’s a “fade the public” angle available with our CELTICS (+105).
Against the spread
PASS since the Celtics +1.5 (-105) doesn’t offer much insurance for our Boston money line wager.
However, let’s wait until closer to tip-off before making a bet because if money keeps rolling in on Milwaukee maybe we get a better number with the Celtics. If Boston’s spread goes to +3 or higher then I’d take the Celtics plus the points and perhaps “sprinkle” on Boston’s money line.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 213.5 (-115) since my predicted score surpasses the projected total.
But, this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the early betting market as more money is on the Under while more bets have been placed on the Over.
Since typically in sports betting it’s wise to follow the money and I don’t have a strong read on the Bucks-Celtics total, I’ll PASS.
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