The 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks (2-1) play the 5-seed Atlanta Hawks (1-2) Tuesday at State Farm Arena in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:35 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Bucks vs. Hawks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Milwaukee took control of this series with a 113-102 Game 3 win in what was a seesaw battle for three quarters before Bucks SF Khris Middleton erupted for 20 points in the fourth quarter to key the victory.
Atlanta had a major injury scare in the second half when PG Trae Young exited the game due to injury after stepping on an official’s foot and rolling his ankle. Young returned minutes later but was clearly playing through injury.
Bucks at Hawks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Hawks +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
- Against the spread/ATS: Bucks -6.5 (-115) | Hawks +6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Bucks at Hawks: Key injuries
Hawks
- PG Trae Young (foot) questionable
- SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) probable
Bucks
- PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) probable
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Bucks at Hawks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 114, Hawks 102
Money line (ML)
PASS even though Milwaukee is clearly the right side, especially if Trae is less than 100% healthy, but the Bucks (-275) are a little out of my price range for an outright winner.
Milwaukee is leading in three of the “four factors” for this series but Game 3 hung in the balance until Middleton snapped in the fourth quarter and outscored Atlanta on his own.
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Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BUCKS -6.5 (-115) for a half unit because if Trae is at all impaired by his tweaked ankle then he’ll probably not attack the basket as aggressively. That would diminish Atlanta’s strength of getting to the charity stripe.
The Hawks led the NBA in FT/FGA rate during the regular season but the Bucks led the NBA in defensive FT/FGA rate in the regular season and are No. 1 in the postseason.
Furthermore, Young’s backcourt teammates aren’t pulling their weight in this series. Guards Kevin Huerter, Lou Williams and Bogdanovic are shooting a combined 30.7% from the field.
Lastly, NBA talking heads are quick to knock Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo when he’s not making fourth-quarter free throws or if the Bucks lose but the basketball community doesn’t give him the praise he deserves.
Giannis is averaging 29.2 points per game on 54.6% shooting with 13.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game this postseason. He has nine 30-point, 10-rebound games.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 219.5 (-110) for a quarter unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since the Bucks-Hawks Game 4 total opened at 222 before the market started hammering the Under.
However, Trae’s injury concerns plus the fact neither team is scoring many points at the foul line combined with both teams playing at a slower tempo in the postseason should result in a lower-scoring affair.
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