The Milwaukee Brewers (27-25) go for a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals (21-27) Sunday in Nationals Park at 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee took both games of the seven-inning doubleheader with Washington Saturday by a combined score of 10-3.
Season series: Brewers 2-0.
RHP Brandon Woodruff makes his 11th start for the Brewers. Woodruff is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA (64 IP, 10 ER), 0.70 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 5-3, in 7 IP with 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 8 K Monday vs. San Diego Padres.
- Career vs. Nationals (regular season): 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.70 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in two starts and two bullpen outings.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 65 at-bats with a .169/.225/.323 slash line, 20/4 K/BB, 3 HR and 7 RBIs.
RHP Max Scherzer is the projected starter for the Nationals. Scherzer is 4-3 with a 2.27 ERA (63 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 across 10 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-1, in 7 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 9 K vs. Cincinnati Reds Tuesday.
- Career vs. Brewers (regular season): 2-2 with a 2.29 ERA (51 IP, 13 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 11.8 K/9 over eight starts and one bullpen appearance.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 111 at-bats with a .198/.288/.387 slash line, 40/12 K/BB, 5 HR and 11 RBIs.
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Brewers at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:16 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers +1.5 (-225) | Nationals -1.5 (+180)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 4, Nationals 1
Money line (ML)
Scherzer being a probable Hall of Fame starting pitcher is part of the reason why the value is with the BREWERS (+100) and the other part has been the dominance of Milwaukee’s starter so far this season.
Woodruff is one of the few non-Jacob deGrom Cy Young contenders in the National League and he currently ranks third in WAR, first in home runs allowed per nine innings, second in FIP and fourth in hard-hit rate.
Furthermore, Woodruff has nine consecutive quality starts and is leading the major leagues in WHIP and hits allowed per nine innings.
According to Pregame.com, more money and bets have been placed on the Nationals, but Washington’s money line is getting cheaper across most books, which insinuates oddsmakers would want more pro-Nationals action.
In my opinion, the reason behind Washington’s popularity in this spot has less to do with actual baseball handicapping and more to do with the market blindly backing Scherzer, who’s trying to end a Nationals losing streak.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Milwaukee’s run line is far too expensive and the Brewers’ alternate line is out of the question given their weak bullpen and Scherzer being on the mound.
Milwaukee’s bullpen was a strength in previous seasons, but this year it ranks 22nd in WAR, 27th in home runs allowed per nine innings and 26th in hard-hit rate.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 6.5 (-115) for a half unit because both starters are aces, Washington’s lineup is average and Milwaukee’s lineup has been terrible thus far.
Also, the Under has cashed in Scherzer’s last four starts at home and Woodruff’s last four on the road vs. a team with a losing record.
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