The Milwaukee Brewers (25-25) play the Washington Nationals (21-25) in Game 2 of their seven-inning doubleheader Saturday at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee beat the San Diego Padres 6-5 in extra innings Thursday to split a four-game series and is 5-5 in its last 10 games.
Washington split a doubleheader with the Cincinnati Reds Thursday. The Nationals lost the three-game set and are 5-5 in their past 10 games.
LHP Brett Anderson is making his eighth start for the Brewers. He is 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA (29 IP, 14 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 3 K Saturday at the Cincinnati Reds.
- Career vs. Nationals: 0-1 with 5 IP, 7 ER, 3 BB, 10 H and 1 K in one start (2015).
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 36 at-bats with a .278/.341/.639 slash line, 8/4 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.
LHP Jon Lester is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 0-2 with a 5.33 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 over five starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 6 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 4 K in Washington’s 12-9 win over the Baltimore Orioles Saturday.
- Career vs. Brewers: 5-4 with a 3.09 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.22 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 across 13 starts.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 147 at-bats with a .347/.392/.469 slash line, 40/11 K/BB, 1 HR and 11 RBIs.
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Brewers at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+180) | Nationals +1.5 (-225)
- Over/Under: 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Nationals 4, Brewers 2
Money line (ML)
BET the NATIONALS (-120) for 1 unit because they are much better against left-handed pitching and Washington’s advanced hitting numbers against Anderson are excellent, which gives the Nationals pitching staff a slight edge.
For instance, the Nationals are sixth in wRC+, fourth in wOBA and 10th in hard-hit rate. Also, Anderson has a 7.47 FIP against current Nationals hitters with a .506 xwOBA, .810 expected slugging percentage and a 95.8 mph exit velocity.
Despite Lester being way past his prime and his basic pitching numbers both this year and against the Brewers not being very good, his advanced numbers against this Milwaukee roster gives me confidence he can grind out a win.
Lester has a 2.00 FIP, .437 expected slugging percentage, 25.4% strikeout rate and an 84.9 mph exit velocity against Milwaukee’s roster.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. Lester, this overall inconsistent Nationals lineup and Washington’s 6-11 run line record as a home favorite are my reasons for staying away.
Over/Under (O/U)
Speaking of Washington’s inconsistent lineup, the Nationals have the highest percentage of Unders in the majors with a 14-29-3 O/U record, which is due to Washington’s batters not hitting as well as expected.
I am convinced enough the Nationals will get to Anderson and Milwaukee’s bullpen to take Washington’s money line, but not convinced enough in either mediocre offense to take the Over.
PASS.
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