Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (24-19) host the Milwaukee Brewers (28-16) Thursday for the start of a 4-game series at Busch Stadium with the first pitch set for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 2-2. St. Louis has a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.

Milwaukee won back-to-back games at the San Diego Padres to win their 3-game series 2-1 and the Brewers are 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games.

St. Louis had its 4-game winning streak snapped in an 8-1 loss vs. the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday and the Cardinals are 6-4 SU in the last 10.

Brewers at Cardinals projected starters

LHP Eric Lauer vs. RHP Adam Wainwright

Lauer is 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 41 2/3 IP across 7 starts.

  • Last start: Won 7-0 Friday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 7 scoreless IP, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 4.18 FIP with a .147/.215/.207 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 20.5 K% and 88.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 44 plate appearances (PA).

Wainwright is 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 47 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Won 5-3 Friday at the Pittsburgh Pirates with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Brewers: Lost 5-1 April 14 in Milwaukee with 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 4.74 FIP with a .250/.350/.472 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 15.4 K% and 87.3 mph EV in 267 PA.

Brewers at Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:23 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Cardinals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+170) | Cardinals +1.5 (-210)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Brewers at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Brewers 3

Money line

BET the CARDINALS (-120) because their lineup lights up lefties, Lauer’s numbers dip on the road while Wainwright has a career sub-3.00 ERA (2.85) at home, and St. Louis has a better “simple rating” than the Brewers (+100).

Baseball Reference’s “simple rating system” SRS includes run differential and strength of schedule. Even though the Brewers have a better record than the Cardinals, Milwaukee is 12th in SRS and St. Louis is 6th. There’s value in the Cardinals because they are better than their record indicates.

BET 1 unit on the CARDINALS (-120).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Cardinals +1.5 (-210) is way too expensive and their alternate RL is a no-go since Milwaukee’s bullpen is much better than St. Louis’s so there would be a concern the Brewers could sneak in the backdoor.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-105) because the Cardinals are 1st in both wRC+ (147) and wOBA (.377) vs. left-handed pitching (according to FanGraphs) and because most of the market is on the Under 7.5 (-120) but the total hasn’t budged.

Also, the St. Louis bullpen is a little suspect, the Cardinals are 13-6-1 O/U at home, and the Brewers are 13-8-1 O/U vs. NL Central foes.

My favorite play in this game is St. Louis’s ML but there’s value in the OVER 7.5 (-105).

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