The Milwaukee Brewers (28-30) stop by Busch Stadium Saturday for the third of a four-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (29-27) at 7:07 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Brewers-Cardinals MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Season series: Tied 4-4.
Playoff picture: St. Louis is still in the hunt for second place in the NL Central and Milwaukee needs to win these next two against the Cardinals plus get some help to make the playoffs.
Brewers at Cardinals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. RHP Adam Wainwright
Woodruff: 2-5 with a 3.43 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 65 2/3 IP over 12 GS.
- Last start: Loss, 6-3, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 9 K and 2 BB at the Cincinnati Reds on Sept. 21.
- Career vs. Cardinals: 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 20 K and 3 BB in 20 IP over 5 G (3 GS).
Wainwright: 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 59 IP over 9 GS.
- Last start: Loss, 4-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 7 K and 2 BB at the Kansas City Royals on Sept. 21.
- Career vs. Brewers: 18-10 with a 2.45 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 227 K and 28 BB in 253 IP over 43 G (36 GS).
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Brewers at Cardinals: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Brewers
- OF Ben Gamel (quadriceps) out
- RP Freddy Peralta (paternity) out
Cardinals
- RP John Gant (groin) out
Brewers at Cardinals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Brewers 1
Money line (ML)
It’s a quirky end of the regular season for the Cardinals (+105) who had games postponed mid-season due to COVID-related complications. If the playoff bracket is not sorted out after the Sunday games then St. Louis might have to play two additional games against the Detroit Tigers.
The Brewers (-118) are on the brink of elimination and need a ton of help to advance. It’s a must-win for Milwaukee who has been steamed up to a favorite after opening as an underdog. My read is that the market is just taking the team who’s season is on the line and not giving it much consideration.
Woodruff is having a good season for the Brewers but Wainwright has been here before and is the perfect guy for the Cardinals to send to the mound in a big game. For example, Wainwright has pitched in 105 2/3 innings over 27 postseason games (all for the Cardinals) and Woodruff has pitched in 16 1/3 IP over five games. Also, the Brewers are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in St. Louis. I’ll take the battle-tested starter at home getting plus-money.
BET CARDINALS (+105). New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Cardinals (+105) pays a $105 return if St. Louis beats Milwaukee.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS ON THE RUN LINE. We are on St. Louis and their run line insurance is too expensive for my liking.
- Brewers -1.5 (+135)
- Cardinals +1.5 (-162)
Over/Under (O/U)
I lean UNDER 7.5 (-110) because the number is suspect and there are a bunch of Under trends in this game. First, the combined Over/Under record of Brewers-Cardinals in NL Central games is 30-39-7 O/U this season.
Second, the Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings and 7-3 in the last 10 games in Busch Stadium. Finally, the Under is 4-0-1 in Woodruff’s last five starts as a favorite and 5-0-1 in Cardinals’ last six games as an underdog.
A “lean” is not necessarily a bet. Proceed at your own caution.
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