The Milwaukee Brewers (51-34) and New York Mets (43-37) clash in a three-game series between division-leading teams at Citi Field. The series opens with a 7:10 p.m. ET game Monday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Brandon Woodruff is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. In 16 starts this season, Woodruff is 7-3 with a 1.87 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 in 101 IP.
Woodruff has benefited from a .203 batting average on balls in play and an 86.6% left-on-base rate, but he’s still posting the best-expected ERA figures of his career. That’s mostly due to having a career-best walks per nine innings rate and holding lefty bats in check (.420 OPS allowed).
RHP Tylor Megill is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. Megill is a 25-year-old rookie making his third start. In 9 1/3 IP, he owns a 4.82 ERA and has walked four while striking out 12.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Brewers at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Brewers 5, Mets 3
Money line (ML)
The Brewers have been a fine road team thus far. They’ve posted a run differential of +39 in going 25-16 away from home.
In their last 19 road tilts, the Brewers are 14-5. Milwaukee is coming off a four-game set at Pittsburgh where they took 3-of-4 from the Pirates but had an 11-game win streak snapped Sunday.
The Mets are coming off taking 2-of-3 games from their crosstown rivals at Yankee Stadium. They scored 18 runs over the two wins, which spelled a departure from the offensive woes the club has endured for most of the 2021 campaign.
Even with the recent offensive successes, New York has tallied just 3.1 runs per game on a .625 OPS since June 17. The Mets are 8-12 over that stretch.
The Brewers are a lean here, but consider zagging a bit on the expected total and taking Milwaukee on the run line.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Mets are coming off an emotional weekend set, and their bullpen is in fatigue danger territory.
New York bats more from the left side than most clubs. Woodruff handles lefties well; so does the Milwaukee bullpen.
BACK THE BREWERS -1.5 (+125).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over is a likable against-the-grain play here. Figure Woodruff as more of a 3.00-ERA hurler, and peg the Megill-Mets’ bullpen combo as a fade (or at least a big enough question mark.
The offensive numbers for both clubs are undercooked in comparison to their Statcast quality-of-contact figures (and the Brewers own a .815 OPS over their last 14 games).
Citi Field is a run-suppressive park, but an 11-mile-an-hour breeze out to left-center is in the forecast and figures as a suitable counterweight.
TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-110).
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]