The Minnesota Twins (57-72) look to pull off the three-game sweep when they host the Milwaukee Brewers (78-52) Sunday for the series finale at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-4 and has cooled off what was a hot Milwaukee team that won eight of its previous 11 games before meeting up with the Twins.
Season series: Twins lead 4-1.
LHP Aaron Ashby is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Ashby has yet to earn a decision and has a 4.15 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 9 K across three starts and one bullpen outing in his rookie season.
RHP Griffin Jax is on the hill for the Twins. Jax is 3-2 with a 6.29 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 over seven starts and four relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 11-9, with 4 2/3 IP, 9 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 4 K Tuesday at the Boston Red Sox.
- Home splits: 2-0 with a 5.23 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.26 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB in two starts and three bullpen outings.
Brewers at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Twins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+102) | Twins +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Brewers 5, Twins 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-155) for a half unit because Milwaukee has the most victories over righty starters in the majors, the highest winning percentage on the road and a significant edge in the pitching department.
Ashby is Milwaukee’s No. 1 rated prospect according to FanGraphs and has pitched eight scoreless innings with 1 walk and 9 strikeouts since giving up 4 earned runs in his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs.
On the other hand, Jax grades in the 18th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, K%, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage and barrel rate. Also, Minnesota’s bullpen has the second-highest home run per nine-inning rate and the seventh-worst FIP.
The Brewers are 14-4 outright this season when facing a right-handed starter on the road as money line favorites of -140 or greater with a plus-22.5 return on investment and an average score of 7.2-3.0. The Twins are just 2-4 outright as home underdogs vs. a lefty starter with a minus-23.8% ROI and an average score of 3.0-6.5.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Brewers -1.5 (+102) isn’t a fat enough payout considering they have a rookie getting the start, Minnesota is 14-9 ATS as a home underdog and Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in interleague games.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-120) since the oddsmaker has liability on the Under already hence the higher vig and the presumed “sharp” money is hammering the Under despite a bunch of Over-friendly situational trends.
Nearly 90% of the cash wagered on the Brewers-Twins total has been on the Under which has caused oddsmakers to move this total down from the 10-run opener, according to Pregame.com.
Aside from both lineups struggling against their respective opponents’ pitching handedness, I cannot make sense of the total for this game and would only put a TINY WAGER on the UNDER 9.5 (-120).
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