The Milwaukee Brewers (78-50) kick off a three-game interleague series with the Minnesota Twins (55-72) Friday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee had a four-game win streak snapped Thursday when it lost the series finale to the Cincinnati Reds but has won seven of its last 10 games and 14 of the last 20.
Minnesota lost five of its previous six games, all on the road, against the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.
Season series: Twins lead 2-1.
LHP Eric Lauer gets the start for the Brewers. He is 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA (77 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 13 starts and four relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 3 K in Milwaukee’s 9-6 victory over the Washington Nationals Saturday.
- 2021 road stats: 1-1 with a 2.97 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.19 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB across four starts and three relief outings.
LHP Andrew Albers (0-0, 2.25 ERA) makes his first start of the year for the Twins. He picked up a no-decision in a relief appearance over 4 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Minnesota’s 7-5 loss at the Yankees Aug. 19.
Brewers at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:55 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Twins +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+111) | Twins +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Brewers 7, Twins 5
Money line (ML)
BET the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit since they have a definitive edge in both relief pitching and hitting. Also, Albers is making his first start since 2017 so Milwaukee probably has an edge in the starting pitching duel even though Lauer is a back-of-the-rotation guy for Milwaukee.
Milwaukee’s lineup is second in WAR and sixth in wRC+ since the All-Star break while the Twins rank 23rd in WAR and 17th in wRC+ over that same span.
Furthermore, Minnesota’s bullpen has the second-highest HR/9 and the third-worst WAR whereas the Brew Crew’s relievers are 39-16 with the seventh-best xFIP in MLB.
Lastly, Lauer is 3-0 on the road this season with the Brewers listed as money line favorites of -130 or greater.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Brewers are just 1-2 ATS in Lauer’s three victories as a road favorite of -130 and greater. On top of that, Milwaukee is just 3-9 ATS in interleague contests and Minnesota is 7-6 ATS in those spots.
The payout isn’t high enough on the Brewers to win by 2 or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that’s backing the Under at a 70% clip, according to Pregame.com.
I’m cool with fading the market in this spot because the Brewers are 21-15-3 O/U as road favorites and the Twins have played to the Over at the highest rate in MLB at 75-46-6 O/U.
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