The Milwaukee Brewers (19-10) and Cincinnati Reds (5-23) meet Monday to open a 3-game series at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Brewers lead 3-0 and have outscored the Reds 34-12.
Milwaukee leads the NL Central but is coming off back-to-back losses in Atlanta. The Brewers’ 4.76 runs per game rank second in MLB, but they scored just 2 runs in each of those setbacks against the Braves,
The Reds took 2 of 3 from the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, notching their first series win of 2022. At 3.57 RPG, Cincinnati ranks as a bottom-third offense. The Reds’ 6.39 RPG allowed ranks last.
Brewers at Reds projected starters
RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Woodruff (3-1, 5.18 ERA) is lined up for his sixth start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 24 1/3 IP.
- Facing the Reds for a second straight start: Allowed 3 runs on 4 H (12K) in 4 2/3 IP May 3.
- Has struggled in 2 road starts this year, but logged a 2.79 ERA in 23 road starts in 2020-21.
Castillo is coming off the IL (shoulder) for hist first start of 2022. He notched a 3.98 ERA in 187 2/3 IP last season.
- Threw 76 pitches in his final Triple-A rehab outing Wednesday.
- Has held current Milwaukee batters to a .593 OPS.
Brewers at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:26 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL): Brewers -1.5 (-103) | Reds +1.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Brewers at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Reds 3
Money line
The Reds are a lean, but with Castillo making his maiden voyage of 2022, PASS and try the run line.
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Run line/Against the spread
Milwaukee’s offensive numbers are buoyed by a .349 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situation.
Cincinnati is at its best against right-handed pitchers, and Castillo is a very good righty who has excelled in his home yard in recent seasons.
Castillo coming off the IL sends this play into conservative territory for me unless a significantly better price on the Reds comes up. CONSIDER A PARTIAL-UNIT PLAY ON CINCINNATI +1.5 (-117).
Over/Under
Both starters have good numbers against opposing batters in this one. The Milwaukee bullpen is quite good, and the Brewer offense is out too far over its skis with its surface run numbers.
The UNDER 7.5 (-130) is a lean, but consider holding out for a tag of -125 or better.
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