The Milwaukee Brewers (41-33) and Arizona Diamondbacks (21-54) close out a three-game series Wednesday with a 3:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Chase Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Brandon Woodruff is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. Woodruff is 5-3 with a 1.94 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 88 IP over 14 starts.
Woodruff is looking to rebound from a rough start at Colorado where he gave up 5 first-inning runs in a 7-3 loss to the Rockies. The Brewer righty had only yielded 4 ER over his previous 26 IP.
LHP Caleb Smith is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. His is 2-2 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, and 4.4 BB/9 in 53 1/3 IP over 5 starts and 18 relief appearances.
Smith has been solid over his last six games (4 starts and 2 relief appearances). He has a career .671 OPS allowed vs. left-handed batters and that figures as a boon against this left-leaning Milwaukee group. Smith owns a 3.06 ERA over his last four games at home.
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Brewers at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:57 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-110) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 6, Diamondbacks 4
Money line (ML)
The Brewers and Diamondbacks have split the first two games of this series. Arizona’s win in a 5-1 game on Monday marked the D-backs second in June and just their sixth since May 2. (Arizona is 6-41 over its last 47 games.)
In a vacuum, looking at metrics that produce and prevent runs versus how the teams have performed to date, Arizona is a play and Milwaukee is a fade. But “LAY OFF” the juice-filled action here.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Milwaukee has the better bullpen by far, and the back end of the Brewers ‘pen is well-rested while the Arizona relief corps has been struggling mightily of late. Diamondback relievers also have a blind spot against left-handed bats, and Milwaukee bats more from that side than most clubs, even against lefty starters.
While the Over is much the best wagering option for this game, a BREWERS -1.5 (-110) play is a distant second, but it’s a slim-value runner-up nonetheless.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both starting pitchers have benefited from generous rates around the margins. Woodruff, for example, has gotten by with a .200 batting average on balls in play and an 85.0% strand rate when runners are on base.
Both offenses have underperformed, and in terms of OPS, rank as bottom-third units. However, the Brewers are at their best against southpaws (.711 OPS), and the D-backs are at their best at home (.716).
BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-110).
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