The Green Bay Packers offense was going to be a work in progress. New coach. New scheme. No major additions. Through 11 games, Matt LaFleur’s group is 13th in points per game and seventh in DVOA. That tracks well (or better) with pre-season expectations.
It’s hard to find legitimate excuses for Mike Pettine and the highly disappointing Packers defense.
This is the second year in the scheme. GM Brian Gutekunst added two top picks and three high-priced free agents to a group already stacked with high picks. There have been no major injuries.
Yet the Packers are 14th in points allowed per game and 22nd in DVOA.
Despite a strong start, the Packers have allowed the third-most yards per play (6.1) this season. Seven times in the last eight games, the Packers have allowed 22 or more points.
Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, the team’s two prized free-agent acquisitions, both have 10 or more sacks. Gutekunst hit home runs with both. But it hasn’t really mattered.
Five quarterbacks in the last eight games produced a passer rating over 100.0. against the Packers.
Only five teams have allowed more yards per attempt (8.2) than the Packers this season. Only five teams have allowed more rushing yards per attempt (4.8). This is one of the most inefficient defenses in the NFL on a down-to-down basis.
As a result, there’s been a lot of bending. Overall, the Packers are 27th in the NFL in forcing three-and-outs per drive. And the defense has allowed more passing yards, more rushing yards and more total yards per game than last season.
The only saving grace for Pettine’s group has been an ability to create turnovers (16, tied for ninth-most) and get stops in the red zone (48.6 touchdown percentage, 10th best), but the Packers are starting to fade in those two stats, too.
Despite adding veteran Adrian Amos and speedy rookie Darnell Savage at safety, the Packers still can’t consistently guard the middle of the field. Tight ends are gashing the defense every week.
When a defense can’t cover the middle of the field, big plays are common. And the Packers have struggled to prevent explosive plays all season.
While Jaire Alexander has been a standout cover corner on one side, quarterbacks have picked on Kevin King on the other side. In fact, no cornerback has allowed more passing yards into his coverage than King, the third-year corner who continues to struggle with quicker receivers.
Over the last six games, quarterbacks are averaging 9.0 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 105.9.
How did this happen?
It wasn’t unreasonable to think the Packers could become a top-10 defense in 2019. Pettine showed some encouraging schematic designs during his first season but injuries hit hard and the personnel wasn’t there. Gutekunst made huge investments to make sure personnel was no longer a problem, and the Packers have been blessed with excellent injury luck on defense, but the results haven’t followed.
The numbers are probably going to get better over the final five weeks. The Packers will likely play at least two rookie quarterbacks on bad teams and struggling Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, and there’s no guarantee Matthew Stafford will play in Week 17.
But the last two months have mostly exposed the Packers defense as a paper tiger. This no longer looks like a defense capable of surviving against good quarterbacks in the playoffs, and that’s pretty disappointing for a team that has invested a lot on that side of the football.