The No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) face the No. 12 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2, 7-2) Saturday for the 2021 Big Ten Championship Game. Kickoff from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind., is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Michigan vs. Iowa odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Michigan is coming off its biggest win in years, a 42-27 victory over rival No. 7 Ohio State last Saturday. The Wolverines have a College Football Playoff berth on the line so while there normally might be some letdown potential you can expect them to be fully focused here.
Michigan’s success has been built on a top-15 defense (4.8 yards per play) and a running game that’s averaging 224.9 yards per game (10th nationally).
Iowa won the Big Ten West last week thanks to its 28-21 victory over Nebraska and Wisconsin’s 23-13 loss to Minnesota. The Hawkeyes have one of the few defenses in the country that has been better than Michigan’s—the Hawkeyes are allowing just 4.5 yards per play (sixth nationally). The offense has been a major problem, however, as they’re not even averaging 300 yards per game (299.3 yards per game, 123rd nationally).
Michigan at Iowa odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:17 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Michigan -520 (bet $520 to win $100) | Iowa +370 (bet $100 to win $370)
- Against the spread (ATS): Michigan -10.5 (-108) | Iowa +10.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Michigan vs. Iowa odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Michigan 24, Iowa 14
Money line
Iowa’s defense gives them a faint shot to win this game outright as a double-digit favorite, but we can’t reasonably make a case for it given what Michigan has on the line.
The payout for the Wolverines isn’t lucrative enough though, so PASS on the money line and target the spread.
Against the spread
Michigan is peaking at the right time entering this one — the Wolverines have covered the spread in each of their last four games with double-digit wins over Ohio State and Indiana in that span.
Iowa’s defense is good enough to keep this close, though. The Hawkeyes are giving up just 17.3 points per game (10th nationallY0 while the offense has at least had a pulse over its last three Big Ten games, scoring 21+ points in each of those contests.
Take IOWA +10.5 (-112) to cover.
Over/Under
Points will be at a premium for three reasons. First, Michigan’s offense isn’t very explosive (226.3 passing yards per game; 68th nationally), second, Iowa hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in a single game this year, and finally, Michigan’s defense should keep a stagnant Hawkeye attack off the scoreboard.
It’s a low number, but we’re still taking the UNDER 43.5 (-108).
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