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The Michigan State Spartans (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) visit the 6th-ranked Oregon Ducks (4-0, 1-0) Friday in the 1st Big Ten game at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. Kickoff is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Michigan State vs. Oregon odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Spartans are in the middle of a tough 3-game stretch. Michigan State lost 23-19 at Boston College Sept. 21, although it covered as a 5-point underdog, while it lost 38-7 as 23.5-point home dogs against 3rd-ranked Ohio State last weekend. The Under has cashed in 3 in a row for MSU, and 4 of 5 games this season.
Michigan State has posted a 1-1 straight up (SU) mark in 2 road games, but it is 2-0 against the spread (ATS), while splitting the Over-Under.
While the Ducks are undefeated, they’re just 1-3 ATS. At home, they’re 2-0 ATS, averaging 30.5 points per game (PPG), allowing 24.0 PPG with a 1-1 O/U record. The Ducks have scored 34 or more points in their last 3 games, while allowing 14 or fewer points in 3 of their 4 outings.
The last time these teams met was in the Redbox Bowl in Santa Clara, Dec. 31, 2018, with Oregon edging Michigan State 7-6. The Vegas line was Pick with the Under (45.5) easily cashing … but that was 6 years ago.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Michigan State at Oregon odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:48 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Michigan State +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200) | Oregon -3000 (bet $3,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Michigan State +23.5 (-110) | Oregon -23.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Michigan State at Oregon picks and predictions
Prediction
Oregon 45, Michigan State 17
Moneyline
Oregon (-3000) will cost 30 times the potential return. That’s obviously way too risky for not nearly enough reward. In other words, you must risk $100 for every $3.33 of profit. There is never a reason to justify betting such a heavy, heavy underdog.
PASS.
Against the spread
OREGON -23.5 (-110) is worth a look laying the points at home. Michigan State is experiencing a very difficult stretch, facing a top-10 team for a 2nd consecutive game in a 6-day span.
We saw Ohio State drop Sparty 38-7 last Saturday in East Lansing, and it’s hard to envision Michigan State faring much better against Oregon’s high-octane offense.
The Ducks have scored 34 or more points in all 3 of their games against FBS this season, while the Spartans have scored 19 or fewer points in 3 of their 4 games vs. FBS foes. QB Aidan Chiles has a bright future for Michigan State, but he and the offense is a bit limited at the moment.
Over/Under
OVER 52.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board as Oregon has the potential to take care of most of this number on its own.
The Over has cashed in 2 of the past 3 games for the Ducks, and their lone home game vs. an FBS opponent this season finished with 71 combined points — with Oregon beating Boise State 37-34 Sept. 7.
BET OVER 52.5 and feel confidently in doing so.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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