The Michigan State Spartans (12-4, 4-1 Big Ten) and Illinois Fighting Illini (11-5, 2-3) are lined up for a Friday night battle in Champaign. The opening tip at the State Farm Center will be at 9 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Michigan State vs. Illinois odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Michigan State is 7-0 straight up (SU) and 6-1 against the spread (ATS) since Dec. 7. With a capable offense (75.5 points per game) and a good defense (70.2 PPG), the Spartans have leveraged a dip in their schedule. Friday’s game marks MSU’s 1st against a KenPom top-40 foe since Dec. 7.
In their last 4 games, the Illini are 3-1 SU and ATS. Also solid at both ends of the floor (76.9 PPG on offense, 63.8 PPG allowed), Illinois has been a lockdown 5 on its home floor. The Illini are 8-1 at home and have held teams under a 40% effective field-goal rate in 5 of those games.
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Michigan State at Illinois odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:47 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Michigan State +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Illinois -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Michigan State +6.5 (-110) | Illinois -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Michigan State at Illinois picks and predictions
Prediction
Illinois 70, Michigan State 67
Moneyline
Fast-paced Illinois likes to launch a lot of 3s. MSU has a strong — and getting better of late — perimeter defense. The Illini have a rebounding edge, but they also have a turnover problem, and iffy turnover rates were part of the equations in both recent losses (Dec. 22 vs. Missouri and Jan. 4 at Northwestern). Both those foes live in the same neighborhood as Michigan State in analytic measures like KenPom and BartTorvik.
There is solid value in the SPARTANS (+220). They may not be a predicted win, but their chances are better than the 31.25% odds implied by this price.
Against the spread
The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against winning teams. The Fighting Illini are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against foes playing .600 basketball or better.
MSU plays a slow-down style but is highly efficient on offense. Past Illinois opponents that fit as comparable are Virginia (Nov. 20) and Penn State (Dec. 10). Illinois lost those 2 games SU and by a combined 36.5 points ATS.
Consider a mix of sides backing the Spartans on the ML and — with MICHIGAN STATE +6.5 (-110) — here against the number.
Over/Under
Indicators swing both ways around what looks like a fair number. PASS.
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