The Michigan State Spartans (3-5, 1-4 Big 10) limp into Champaign to take on the No. 13 Illinois Fighting Illini (7-1, 4-1) Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Michigan State vs. Illinois odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Michigan State comes into this game after a miserable effort on and off the field last week at No. 4 Michigan. After a 29-7 loss — as a 21-point underdog — to their rivals on the field, several MSU players roughed up Michigan players in a stadium tunnel.
Due to the incident, Spartans coach Mel Tucker suspended 8 players indefinitely. They include 3 defensive starters, one being senior LB/DE Jacoby Windmon, who leads the country with 6 forced fumbles and a team-high 5.5 sacks among his 49 tackles.
With RB Chase Brown (1,208 rushing yards) leading the Illini’s ground attack, Windmon will be sorely missed.
For Illinois, it is all about the run game and defense. Brown has run for at least 129 yards on 25 carries in each of the past 4 games. While only scoring 8 TDS (5 rushing, 3 receiving) this season, these points account for almost 23% of the 208 total points scored by Illinois.
The defense’s 8.9 points per game allowed ranks No. 1 in the nation, ahead of Georgia (10.5 PPG allowed). The defense has only given up 71 points, including 62 in in 5 Big Ten games for an average of 12.4 per contest. The defense will look to dominate again this week against Michigan State, which has only managed 81 points in 5 conference games (16.2 PPG).
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY sports.
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Michigan State at Illinois odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:40 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Michigan State +650 (bet $100 to win $650) | Illinois -1100 (bet $1,100 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Michigan State +16.5 (-107) | Illinois -16.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Michigan State at Illinois picks and predictions
Prediction
Illinois 24, Michigan State 7
Moneyline
AVOID.
Illinois (-1100) will prevail, but it’s not wise to risk 11 times your potential profit.
Against the spread
LEAN ILLINOIS -16.5 (-115).
It’s only a lean because, while Illinois has only given up 62 points in conference, it has only scored 115 in those games for a 23.0 PPG average. The Illini win with defense and running the ball. So, I cannot see this game getting to out of hand. The question is: Will Michigan State even score?
Over/Under
BET UNDER 40.5 (-108).
As mentioned, Illinois allows only 12.4 points per Big Ten game, while MSU averages 16.2 PPG in conference. The Illini will shut down the Spartans and any points scored here will be by Illinois … which will not be many.
UNDER 40.5 (-108) is my FAVORITE PLAY in the game.
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