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Michigan’s loss to Michigan State was so inexplicable that the advanced analytics are way down on the Wolverines’ chances for success moving forward. So much so that one game was moved from the likely win column to a likely loss.
According to ESPN’s FPI, the Wolverines entered this past Saturday with a 93.4% chance of taking down the rival Spartans, but you play games for a reason, and it turned out that Michigan was outmatched and underprepared for MSU. Thus, the outlook for the season is looking much different.
After a resounding Week 1 win over Minnesota, the expectation according to FPI was that Michigan would lose two games almost assuredly, with Penn State (who is now 0-2) being something of a toss-up. Now that game, along with Wisconsin and Ohio State are in the statistical sure-loss category — while another game is now in the unlikely to win category.
Below, you’ll see the percentages FPI has placed on each game as well as what the ranking was after Week 1. Needless to say, with a resounding win on Saturday against No. 13 Indiana, Michigan could flip the script once again.
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