The Michigan Wolverines (4-0) visit the Wisconsin Badgers (1-2) for a noon ET kickoff Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium. Below, we look at Michigan vs. Wisconsin odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Michigan, No. 14 in AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports, moved up five spots with a 20-13 win over Rutgers last week and will look to stay undefeated against the Badgers, who dropped from No. 15 to unranked with a 41-13 loss to Notre Dame.
While Michigan may be ranked, it still isn’t the favorite, after dropping 40-plus points on two non-Power 5 programs and defeating two other struggling big-name schools in Rutgers and Washington.
Wisconsin has lost only to programs in the top 10 entering Week 5, which is why, at home, it’s still the favorite. However, after throwing 4 picks against Notre Dame, Badgers starting QB Graham Mertz may have some trust to regain with bettors.
Michigan at Wisconsin odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Michigan +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Wisconsin -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Michigan +1.5 (-107) | Wisconsin -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Michigan at Wisconsin odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Michigan 31, Wisconsin 21
Money line
BET on MICHIGAN (+105) as it has shown few weaknesses so far this season.
Sophomore RB Blake Corum is ninth in the country in rushing yards, and he’ll look to have a big outing in the Wolverines’ biggest challenge yet.
With Notre Dame taking it to Wisconsin last week, most notably on the defensive side of the field, I’d expect Michigan to have its way after holding Rutgers to just 13 points and Washington to 10.
The Wolverines have yet to give up 15 points in a game. Against a struggling Wisconsin offense, Michigan will run its way to another win.
Against the spread
PASS on the spread and look to the money line.
Each of Wisconsin’s losses to top-10 programs was by more than 5 points. Michigan is getting 1.5 points, but the value just isn’t there over picking the Wolverines to win outright.
Over/Under
“LEAN” on the OVER 43.5 (-110) as a solid play on the total. Michigan is averaging 40.3 points per game.
While it’s yet to play a top program like Wisconsin, that type of production is not something that just disappears. Corum has proven he’s that good. Wisconsin will need to keep up.
Michigan is giving up over 200 yards to quarterbacks that have thrown more than 30 times and Mertz is topping 30 pass attempts per game. It’s also yet to pick off a quarterback trusted to throw that much. Mertz could get back to the player Wiscinson knows he can be.
Giving Michigan’s strength in running and its weakness against pass-heavy offenses, the Over should be the better play but just for half a unit.
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