Despite historical data showing it takes a bit longer for rookie wide receivers to find their groove in terms of production, the Indianapolis Colts feel strongly that Michael Pittman Jr. can beat the odds.
With a clear path to production as the X-receiver in the offense, Pittman Jr. has both the skill set and the opportunity to make an immediate impact during his first campaign in the NFL. It’s all just a matter of how quickly he can do so.
In her projections for NFL.com, Cynthia Frelund has the USC product coming out as the third-most productive rookie wide receiver in 2020.
At No. 43, Pittman Jr. projects as a much “safer” fantasy value than Ruggs, who is ranked just one slot ahead of him. His USC resume shows that he logged the most deep receptions (20-plus air yards) and receiving yards in the Pac-12 last season (12 and 493, per PFF) and the fourth-most yards after the catch in the Pac-12 since 2018 (716, per PFF). Pittman’s potential fit could start in the deep passing game, with Colts receivers recording the fewest deep receptions in the NFL last season (6 on 34 targets, per Next Gen Stats). Factoring in quarterback Philip Rivers’ play-execution history along with veteran receiver T.Y. Hilton’s ability to draw away top defensive players, Pittman has a safe floor with a lot of upside.
The two ahead of Pittman Jr. on the list are CeeDee Lamb and Henry Ruggs, both of which were taken in Round 1 of the 2020 draft.
While the opportunity will certainly be there for Pittman Jr., he won’t be handed the job. His biggest competition comes in the form of Zach Pascal, who led the injury-ravaged wide receiver room in receiving yards in 2019.
But Pittman Jr.’s skill set should allow him to come away with the starting role even if it takes a week or two into the season to solidify himself.
He has the frame, length, footwork and reliable hands to make an immediate impact from Day 1, and it would come as no surprise if he wound up being the most productive rookie receiver in 2020.