The Miami Marlins play the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS Wednesday in their neutral site of Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:08 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Marlins-Braves MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Atlanta leads 1-0.
Marlins vs. Braves: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Ian Anderson
Lopez: 6-4 with 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 57 1/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 24): Win, 4-2, with 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 K and 2 BB against Atlanta.
- Career vs. Braves: 2-4 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 43 K and 16 BB in 40 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
Anderson: 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 32 1/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start (Oct. 1): Win, 5-0, with 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 9 K and 2 BB against the Cincinnati Reds in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.
- 2020 vs. Miami: 0-1, 1.04 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10 K, 4 BB, 8 2/3 IP, 2 starts.
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Marlins vs. Braves: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Marlins
- OF Starling Marte (finger) out
Marlins vs. Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 7, Marlins 4
Money line (ML)
The Braves (-209) broke out for a six-run bottom of the seventh rally that the Marlins (+185) couldn’t answer in Atlanta’s 9-5 Game 1 victory. C Travis d’Arnaud and CF Ronald Acuña Jr. did the most damage. D’Arnaud went 3-3 with a three-run home run and an RBI double while Acuña led off the game with a solo shot, added a single which turned into a run.
The two most productive Braves hitters against Lopez are d’Arnaud and Acuña and the rest of Atlanta’s lineup is lethal. The Braves have the best lineup in the majors across several hitting categories. Plus, Marlins-Braves did this song and dance with this exact starting pitcher matchup Sept. 24, which the Marlins won, but Game 2 will go in Atlanta’s favor.
All this being said, I am still going to PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because it’s too expensive for an Atlanta outright win.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Braves (-209) to win would return a profit of just $4.78.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The BRAVES -1.5 (-106) have owned the Marlins +1.5 (-115), going 36-13 since 2018.
Anderson is a third overall pick who has better stuff than Lopez and has been thrust into the playoff mix due to injuries to Atlanta’s starting rotation. This could be worrisome but you have to think the playoff jitters are lessened for the rookie considering the COVID-altered game conditions.
I expect Anderson to continue his strong play but even if he can’t the Braves have the hitters to outscore the Marlins. Also, not going to lie, the friendlier number for the run line helps too.
I “LIKE” BRAVES -1.5 (-106).
New to sports betting? A $106 wager on the Braves -1.5 (-106) returns a $100 profit it Atlanta beats Miami by two or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 8.5 (-121) is the best play in Marlins-Braves Game 2. Atlanta has the second- and Miami the third-highest percentage of Overs in division games. These NL East games are slugfests. Three of the previous four Marlins-Braves contests went Over the projected total.
Despite all that mumbo jumbo, I said above about “the friendlier number,” the Over being more expensive is the reason I’m taking it. The market is hitting the Over in this game because the total should be in double digits given the matchup.
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