The New York Yankees (32-25, 2nd in AL East) and Miami Marlins (29-28, 2nd in NL East) finish their regular-season schedules with a three-game weekend series at Yankee Stadium. First pitch of Friday’s series opener will be thrown at 7:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Marlins-Yankees betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
The Yankees are safely in the AL playoffs. The Marlins are currently sixth in the NL picture but have a wave of teams to hold off this weekend.
Marlins at Yankees: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. LHP J.A. Happ
Alcantara: 3-2, 6 starts, 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 34 2/3 IP
- Strikeout rate is up and walk rate is down in contributing to a career-best ERA and WHIP. He’s also received considerably more run support after having a league-high 14 losses with an ERA of 3.88 last season.
- Pitched 6 innings of one-run ball against the Washington Nationals his last time out (Sept. 20).
Happ: 2-2, 8 starts, 3.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 44 1/3 IP
- Allowing 2 fewer hits per nine than he did in 2019.
- Threw 8 scoreless innings in a win over the Boston Red Sox Sept. 19. Recorded nine strikeouts with no walks.
- Has a 1.00 ERA through 3 starts and 18 innings in his home park this season.
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Marlins at Yankees: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Marlins
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
- 2B Isan Diaz (groin) out
- 2B Logan Forsythe (oblique) out
- OF Harold Ramirez (hamstring) out
Marlins at Yankees: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Marlins 6, Yankees 4
Money line (ML)
Back the MARLINS (+175) at a great price with Alcantara on the hill and Miami continuing to push for an unexpected playoff berth. The Yankees (-200) have their spot locked up, and Happ shouldn’t be expected to pitch too deep into the game while getting ready for a spot in the playoff rotation.
The Yankees have dropped four of their last five games, including their last two games against the Toronto Blue Jays by a total of 18-2. The Marlins snapped a four-game losing skid with a 4-2 win over the Atlanta Braves Thursday.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Take the insurance with Miami and back the MARLINS +1.5 (-121) to either win outright or lose by just a single run. Miami is 30-16 ATS as an underdog this season. New York is a more modest 25-23 ATS as the favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the OVER 9.5 (-110). The Marlins rank seventh in baseball with a team OPS of .787 against left-handed pitchers. The Yankees are fifth at a clip of .812 against right-handed pitching.
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