The Miami Marlins (55-78) play the New York Mets (65-67) Thursday at Citi Field in their series finale with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York is looking for for its second win in this series after Wednesday’s meeting was rained out and rescheduled for later in the season.
Season series: Marlins lead 6-5.
RHP Sandy Alcantara is on the rubber for the Marlins. He is 8-12 with a 3.27 ERA (165 1/3 IP, 60 ER), 2.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 27 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 6-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 12 K Saturday against the Cincinnati Reds.
- 2021 road stats: 6-7 with a 4.24 ERA (80 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.31 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB across 14 starts.
- vs. Mets on the current roster (116 PA): 4.78 FIP with a .264 batting average (BA), .320 wOBA, .443 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.8 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Carlos Carrasco is New York’s projected starter. He is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through six starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K in New York’s 3-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants Aug. 26.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster (32 PA): 1.63 FIP with a .250 BA, .259 wOBA, .266 xSLG, 21.9 K% and 87.8 mph EV.
Marlins at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-160) | Mets -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Prediction
Marlins 3, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Marlins (+140) because the Mets shouldn’t be this big of a favorite against any opponent given the dumpster fire New York’s 2021 has turned into. Also, Miami has its ace on the hill Thursday and the Marlins lead the Mets in the season series.
However, Carrasco’s previous start against a powerhouse Giants team was impressive and New York has won three straight games. Furthermore, the Marlins are 21-46 on the road and the Mets are 40-27 at home so I understand the pricing.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the MARLINS +1.5 (-160) for a half unit as more of a fade of the Mets rather than a bet on Miami. New York is 17-34 ATS as a home favorite and 23-34 ATS vs. NL East foes. Whereas the Marlins are 29-26 ATS as a road underdog and 30-22 ATS against divisional opponents.
Moreover, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the ATS betting market. According to Pregame.com, nearly 85% of the cash is on Miami’s run line but a slight majority of the bets placed are on New York and it’s typically wiser to follow the money in sports betting.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) for a half unit only because we are arriving to the party a little late. The Marlins-Mets game opened with a flat-7 total before the pro-Under money forced sportsbooks to lower the total.
And we have another “pros vs. joes” situation with the presumed “sharp” money being on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over.
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