The Miami Marlins (14-11) and New York Mets (12-16) continue a series at Citi Field at 7:10 p.m. ET Wednesday. Below, we analyze the Marlins-Mets MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Marlins at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Elieser Hernandez vs. RHP Jacob deGrom
Hernandez has a 2.29 ERA through 19 2/3 innings pitched.
- The Mets can offer up more lefty batters than the average MLB lineup. That’s a potential problem for Hernandez who yielded a .910 OPS against LHBs a year ago.
- Hernandez threw just 130 pro innings (MLB and Triple-A) in 2019 and is treated cautiously on his pitch counts. He hasn’t gone past 5 1/3 IP in any of his four starts this season.
It’s no surprise to see deGrom posting stellar numbers through five starts. The seven-year veteran owns a 2.61 career ERA, and he’s dialed in on some excellent figures in 2020. The Mets righty has thus far posted a 1.93 ERA and is getting swings and misses at a career-high 18.8% clip.
- DeGrom is facing the Marlins for a third straight start. Normally, that would be a warning sign, but he’s been good against Miami the last two times (1.64 ERA in 11 IP), and he clocked a 2.37 ERA against the Marlins in 2019.
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Marlins at Mets: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Marlins
- C Francisco Cervelli (concussion) out
- 1B Garrett Cooper (COVID-19) out
Mets
- OF Yoenis Cespedes (personal) out
- SS Andres Gimenez (undisclosed) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Marlins at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML)
The big price will scare some bettors off the New York (-250) side here. The Marlins (+225) bullpen is out too far over its skis at a 4.30 ERA (situation-neutral ERA figures are in the 5.25 range), and that pen looms as key in this game. The Mets offense is also way undervalued by perhaps as much as a run per game by metrics like base runs and cluster luck, so the big tag here isn’t quite big enough.
BACKING THE METS (-250) HAS DECENT VALUE.
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Mets returns a profit of $4.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Laying off the low-total, multi-run action is usually wise. THE TAG HERE IS METS -1.5 (-115)/MARLINS +1.5 (-106). SKIP IT.
Over/Under (O/U)
New York was shut out in both ends of a doubleheader Tuesday, and that’s coloring this total to0 heavily. Both starting pitchers are solid, but an under-cooked Mets offense adds to some profit value on the OVER 7 (-110).
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